Moderate Risk for Southern/Central Indiana Wednesday

The new update from the Storm Prediction Center has all of southern/central Indiana under a MODERATE risk for severe weather on Wednesday, while the rest of the state has a SLIGHT risk for severe weather. The main threats in the moderate risk area are damaging winds, large hail, and the POSSIBILITY of strong tornadoes in the moderate risk area. Here is the SPC'S convective outlook & disscusion for Wednesday. (left & below)

SPC Discussion

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO/AR NORTHEAST INTO
   INDIANA...
   
        ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK ACROSS
   THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
   
        ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM
   MO/AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   TORNADOES...
   
     VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
   PLAINS DURING THE LATE DAY1 EARLY DAY2 PERIOD WHERE DEEPENING IS
   EXPECTED.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL SFC CYCLONE
   WILL EVOLVE OVER CNTRL KS COINCIDENT WITH DEEPENING UPPER LOW BY
   25/12Z.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL ENABLE A BROAD WARM SECTOR TO RETURN
   ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE 70S SFC DEW
   POINTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70
   CORRIDOR/WARM FRONT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN
   INSTIGATOR FOR PRE-DAWN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER KS/MO AND WARM
   ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE EPISODIC SEVERE CLUSTERS
   DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE E-W
   BOUNDARY RETREATS TOWARD LOWER MI.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE
   THE WARM BUOYANT AIRMASS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MO/AR INTO NRN
   LA AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE.  STRONG HEATING/MIXING WILL ENABLE
   THIS BOUNDARY TO SURGE NEWD DURING THE DAY AND WILL AID DISCRETE
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 80S...THOUGH
   TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MO AT SLIGHTLY LOWER
   CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS INITIAL
   SUPERCELL ACTIVITY STRONGLY SUPPORTS INTENSE UPDRAFTS/ROTATION THAT
   SHOULD LEAD TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT
   STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED ALONG THE MODERATE RISK CORRIDOR.  AS
   MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS AR INTO SRN IL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEEPENS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE SURGING DRYLINE.  NEEDLESS TO
   SAY A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

Make sure you have a weather radio if any warnings are issued for your county. Please stay safe everyone!!!