The Weather Week Ahead: September 7, 2014

TODAY: Today's weather was absolutely amazing with a crystal clear cobalt blue sky all day and a nice northerly wind fetching in low dewpoints and pleasant temperatures. Highs across the area ranged from the upper 70s to low 80s, with comfortable dewpoints everywhere in the 55-60F range.

LOOKING AHEAD: Yes, tomorrow will be pretty much the exact same as today: sunny and nice, but actually the morning will be a bit cooler. Expecting low temperatures for tomorrow morning to be in the lower 50s. Highs may top out a little warmer than today, but still nice. Lower 80s. Tuesday looks to be a day of change. After another cool morning starting in the lower 50s areawide, southerly winds will take over in the afternoon as our next storm system takes shape to our west. It will be more humid Tuesday afternoon as dewpoint values rise, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90F. Tuesday night will be warm, 68-72F, setting the stage for a potential convectively active day for the region Wednesday. Cyclogenesis will take place across the plains Tuesday, and the area of low pressure will deepen as it moves east into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday to under 1000mb. Attached to this low will be a strong cold front, associated with it the chance of severe weather. Convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday during the day for areas northwest of the Lower Ohio Valley, but this activity will stay north and west probably through the day with our greatest chance of storms coming in the evening hours. The 18z run of the GFS initalizes convection to our west by the mid afternoon, with northwestern parts of our region being affected by the late afternoon. This line will be pressing southeast across the area Wednesday evening, and the threat could remain until the early morning hours of Thursday. The numerical models are all showing this line weakening by the early morning hours as dynamic & diurnal support weakens, with different ideas as to the location of where the storms will weaken. This will come into better focus for the next few days. I think the main threat with this system will be damaging straight line winds, a low hail and tornado threat exists for now. For our area, I think the areas with the most likely chance to have any sort of severe weather will be across Southeast Illinois, with gradual lower chances of severe to the east of there across Southwest Indiana and Western Kentucky.

FALL ARRIVES: Behind the cold front, the October-like airmass will rush in, as a 1030mb surface high glides across the Great Lakes. Thursday, Friday, and the weekend will feature highs ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. Not to mention, low temperatures will be crisp. Looking at the potential for upper 40s for low temps next weekend, with lower 50s a sure guarantee. Sunny skies will prevail for Thursday through Saturday, turning mostly cloudy though as an upper disturbance moves along Sunday associated with it a chance of light rain. All in all though, it will be delightful.

CLIMATE: 80F was the high temperature today at 2:49 PM. The low, thus far today, has been 59F at 5:51 AM. The normal high temperature for this date at Evansville is 85F, while the average low for September 7 is 61F. The record high for today is a sultry 101F, set in 1925, while the record low temperature for this date is 43F, set in 1988. Today we received 0.00" precipitation. The record daily amount for today is 1.49", set 100 years ago in 1914. Through September 7, Evansville has received 1.11" of rain, 0.44" above the normal through this date of 0.67". For the year, Evansville has received 35.29" of precipitation, above normal by 3.70". Through September 6, temperatures for the month have been running warmer than normal, with an average temperature so far this month being 77.5F, 3.8F above.

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Thanks for reading!

July 14, 2014: BIG Cool Down Coming

TODAY'S WEATHER: A few spots across the area, mostly across northern areas of southern IL, had to deal with some severe weather today in association with the secondary and "main" cold front. There was a severe thunderstorm watch posted for areas north of US-50 in IL and IN this afternoon, where a few severe thunderstorm warnings were issued. The Lawrenceville Airport in Lawrence County, IL recorded a 63mph wind gust as the storms blew threw there. Most of the region, though, was spared from the severe weather just dealing with some showers. Temperatures weren't terrible but the humidity was there this afternoon. Highs today ranged from the mid to upper 80s across the Lower Ohio Valley, with a 86F at EVV, an 87F at LOU, and the warm spot of 89F at PAH.

COOL DOWN COMING: Yes, a very nice cool down is coming. It will feel more like September or even early October as an anomalous upper low and trough dig in over the Eastern US. Starting tomorrow morning you'll feel it. It will be in the lower 60s to start tomorrow, with afternoon highs ranging from 72F-76F across the region. Of course dewpoints will be dry probably dipping down to near 50F by tomorrow afternoon. It's going to be a gorgeous day no matter where you head.

18z GFS 500mb level valid 4pm tomorrow - shows the upper low centered on top Lake Huron

Great looking surface map as well with a nice northerly wind w/ surface high pressure to our west as CAA takes place - GFS valid 4p tomorrow

Tomorrow night is going to be a very cool morning, getting pretty close to record territory. Lows will range from 52-56F areawide. The record Wednesday morning at Paducah is 56F set in 1967, record at Evansville is a tough to beat 47F set in 1930, and for the Louisville area it is 55F. We will be close to records in some areas. Wednesday will be about the same as Tuesday - mix of sun and cumulus clouds and perhaps a touch warmer. Highs 75-79F. Just great. Wednesday night cool again, with low temps 54-58F. The low humidity and comfortable will continue AGAIN for Thursday, as general "trougheness" will remain. Highs a touch warmer again, but still very nice 77-81F. Slight chance of rain will exist Friday for areas in KY, but shouldn't be a big deal as the mid level wave instigating the precipiation should steer south enough to be a nuisance. There will be more clouds around during the day Friday due to the increased moisture associated with the mid level shortwave, but the temperatures will once again be comfortable in the mid to upper 70s for highs.

To wrap things up, I wanted to show you a graphic showing how far south this cool air outbreak will stretch. Take a look at this map showing surface temperatures across the southern half of the US. Look at far south the closest 80F contour is. It's well down into Arkansas and Tennessee! And the closest 90F? Way down on the Gulf Coast!

18z GFS valid 4p tomorrow - 2m temperatures. 70s for highs as far south as Tennessee & Arkansas.

Get out and enjoy this cool spell! I think the humidity will become noticeable again by Saturday, but certainly 5 days of low humidity and comfortable temps is welcome as it's a rarity here in mid-July. Thanks for reading!

July 12, 2014: Look at the Severe Risk for Tomorrow

TODAY'S WEATHER: A few showers/storms late this morning and into the early afternoon today gave way to a pretty nice day, albeit humid. The high made it to 85F at EVV this afternoon, after 0.26" of rain was recorded with the convection earlier in the day. The low this morning was a muggy 72F.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLINE: The real purpose of this post, though, is to outline the severe risk for tomorrow evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire Lower Ohio Valley under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening:

SPC Convective Outlook for Tomorrow, July 13

The threat is associated with a cold front that will dive across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley tomorrow. Forecasting the convection to fire well north of the Ohio River by 4 PM tomorrow, and gradually push southeast across the region heading into the evening hours. Here is the simulated radar reflectivity from the 12z NAM 4KM for tomorrow, valid at 7 PM CDT:

NAM 4KM shows convection south of the Ohio River by 7 PM.

With CAPE values expected to exceed 2,000 J/KG tomorrow afternoon, along with effective bulk shear values above 30kts, the storms should have no problem organizing into bowing line segments. Damaging wind is the main threat with these storms tomorrow, along with a chance of a tornado. The large hail risk is lower than previous events as the freezing level is well above the surface, in the 600mb range. Of course the hail potential is still there, but it will have to fall through a decent layer of above freezing air before reaching the surface.

Another threat for tomorrow is the heavy rainfall. The heavy rain threat is elevated for tomorrow greater than it normally would because of PWAT values approaching if not exceeding 2" just ahead of the boundary (basically, the atmosphere's ability to "ring" out the moisture available through all levels). Precipitable water values over 2" mean that the atmosphere is LOADED with moisture. Flash flooding is a big concern. Here is the projected PWAT values for tomorrow evening coming from the 18z run of the NAM:

Greatest precipitable water values (in excess of 2") across Southern IL into Southwest IN at 7 PM, according to the NAM.

REFRESHING air will be the story heading into midweek. I'll have details on that coming up after this severe weather. Follow @wxSam on Twitter for realtime updates tomorrow.

The Outlook: June 18, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: It was once again a hot, humid day across the Lower Ohio Valley. The temperature reached 94F at EVV this afternoon, 93F at PAH. Besides the heat, we have had a few isolated storms pop up today. There was actually some strong thunderstorms in Southwest IN this afternoon; namely in parts of Gibson, Daviess, Pike, Knox, and Martin counties. These did produce heavy rainfall but they were not severe. The severe weather has been confined to areas east of the area; where severe t'storm watch #326 is in effect from the Southeastern part of Indiana up through Western Pennsylvania. Tonight, we could deal with some of the remants of some strong storms presently in Northern IL, but they are expected to be no more than showers by the time they reach northern stretches of our region. Low tonight near 74F. Another hot one for tomorrow. High temperature near 92F with a mix of sun and cumulus clouds. The chance for a thunderstorm during the afternoon remains, but they will still be isolated in nature. Friday the coverage of showers and thunderstorms look to increase. After another very warm start, near 75F, some convection could be in the area as soon as the morning hours as some of the models advertise. The coverage of the storms will grow as we head into the afternoon Friday as a weak boundary approaches from the northwest. Some of the storms could be strong; but an organized severe threat isn't expected. High temperatures on Friday a touch cooler, near 88F but it will remain humid. Friday night looks like a gradual drying trend. Lows a little cooler (still warm), near 70F. Saturday looks to remain warm and humid as the tropical airmass remains in place; highs near 90F with a mix of sun and clouds. There is a a a bit of model discrepancy for whether showers/storms will be in the area on Saturday. I'm going to cite with the drier NAM solution, but going to leave a 10% chance of a storm just in case. The upper ridge looks to break down and lose its place as a domiant weather factor in the coming days.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: No tropical cyclone formation expected in the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: The NHC has removed the invest area that they previously had south of the Pacific Mexican Coast. Shower and thunderstorm has become too disorganized for any tropical cyclone development in the near term.

CLIMATE EVV:
For yesterday - June 17, 2014:
High 92F Low 75F Avg 84F
Precipitation: 0.00"
Normals for June 17
High 86F Low 65F Avg 75F
Records for June 17
High 100F (1918, 1936) Low 50F (1961)

Since June 1 Precipitation: 2.56" (0.26" above normal)

The Outlook: June 17, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: Just like yesterday, it is hot and it is humid. The temperature at EVV at 3 PM was 91F, a dewpoint of 69F, and there is a southwest wind present at 14 MPH. We have a mix of sun and clouds, with more sun north. There are a few returns on radar, as a few popup showers (really just sprinkles) are around. If you get under one of these, it will not last long - maybe a minute or two today. Temperatures through the evening will fall through the 80s to a rather warm overnight low near 73F. Tomorrow looks about the same as the past few - a mix of sun and clouds with SW breezes with a humid high near 92F. Could see a pop up shower tomorrow as in the summer you can rarely say there's a 0% chance of rain because of the buoyant nature of summer air masses even though there is no "real" forcing mechanism and that there is still an upper high over the region, but they will be isolated. Tomorrow night looks dry with another very warm overnight low near 74F. Really looks about the same for Thursday as well. High temperatures near 92F, with a mix of sun and clouds with a slight (20%) chance of a shower/storm. Broken record. Perhaps on Friday the coverage of the showers/storms will be slightly greater, as the upper high gets beaten down somewhat. 30% chance, so still not very high but it's higher. Highs on Friday near 91F with partly sunny skies. It's going to remain a pretty boring weather pattern through the end of the week.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: No tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: The NHC continues to outline an invest area with a tropical wave well south of Mexico. The showers and storms associated remain disorganized, and thus the NHC has given the wave a 30% chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

The Outlook: June 15, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: Well, the heat and humidity has come as promised. The temperature at EVV at 4 PM was 87F, a muggy dewpoint of 66F, and a wind out of the south at 16 MPH. We have had some shower activity over Southern IL, but it has diminished for now. We have reached our high for the day, and we'll slowly fall through the 80s this evening to a overnight low much warmer than previous mornings, near 71F. The SPC has actually outlined areas northwest of Evansville in Southern IL under a slight risk for severe weather through this evening. The latest HRRR model does fire some more convection today, initating it pretty much along the Mississippi River this evening. We'll see if this plays out. If it does, then there could be a severe t'storm watch issued this evening and some reports of severe weather across Southern IL. I don't it'll make it into Southwest IN or Northwest KY at severe criteria, but we could deal with the remant showers/generic thunderstorms. Tomorrow, with the weak boundary in the area, a few more showers/storms could fire. Sticking with that 40% chance. The sky will be partly cloudy tomorrow, with an afternoon high near 90F. Our first official 90 degree day for the year. Monday night looks dry, low near 71F. The day Tuesday looks dry and hot. The high temperature will be even warmer than Monday, with an afternoon high near 92F. The sky will be mostly sunny, with the muggy dewpoints sticking around - upper 60s. Really nice. Wednesday looks about the same. After a warm start near 70F, the afternoon high will be near 92F. The GFS does fire a few storms during the day, but with the upper high firmly in place across the region I won't put it in the forecast for now. The hot, humid, sunny weather will continue on Wednesday.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: There is no tropical cyclone formation expected over the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: The last advisory has been issued on Cristina. It is now a 35 MPH post-tropical cyclone, with a low central pressure of 1005 MB. It will be pretty much off the radar screen by Monday. Besides Cristina, the NHC has outlined an invest area a few hundred miles south of Guatemala. The NHC has a 10% chance of this thing developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, with a medium 30% chance of development in the next 5 days. The area of disorganized t'storms now is expected to get more organized in upcoming days as the environment is favorable west of the system. We'll keep an eye on it.

The Outlook: June 14. 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: Another beautiful October-like day across the area. Temperature at EVV at 1 PM was 76F, a ridiculously dry dewpoint of 44F, a NNE wind 9 MPH, and a rel humidity of only 32%. We do have a few high clouds across the area, so not the "severe" clear sky from yesterday. Still, very nice and bright. We will rise another few degrees before the day is out, with an afternoon high near 80F. Beginning tonight, we're going to see those winds shift to the east and eventually they will blow from the south going into tomorrow as a southerly flow develops. After a cool start, near 56F Sunday morning, the heat levels will rise going into the afternoon. High near 87F, with more sun early in the day - some late afternoon clouds. Humidity will rise as well, as dewpoint values rise into the upper 60s by late afternoon. It's unfourtunate, I know. Sunday night, with the tropical airmass fullly in place, the low temperature will be much warmer than the previous mornings near 70F. Going into Monday midday, a weak surface boundary approaching from the northwest now looks to spark some scattered storms/showers Monday. The chance for rain Monday looks higher than yesterday's forecast. Rising the chance for rain to 40%, up from the 20% chance yesterday. Forecasting a high of 89F Monday, with the humidity remaining in place. The boundary looks to fizzle out by Mon night/Tuesday, so precipiation chances look slim for Tuesday. The boundary won't give any relief to the heat, though. Forecasting a high of 91F Tuesday, our warmest so far this season as the upper high amplifies over the eastern half of the US. You guessed it, the humidity will remain and the sun will be out. It will be hot.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: No tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: Cristina, now a shadow of its former self, has weakened all the way down to a 70 MPH tropical storm as of the 8 AM PDT advisory. It will continue to weaken, as it slides into the much cooler waters west of Baja California.

Updated Outlook: June 13, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: A severe clear day across the area today along with dewpoints near 50F remind me of an October day rather than a June one. The temperature at EVV at 2 PM was 76F, dewpoint 50F, and a nice northerly wind at 8 MPH. We won't see many days like this over the coming summer months, so take advantage. The open wave did produce some showers as forecast early this morning, but amounts were very light. Picked up 0.01" here in Warrick County, and amounts <0.05" were common across the area. The forecast for tomorrow morning remains refreshing, forecasting a low of 52F here as we go clear sky and calm wind as the 1020MB surface high glides southeast across the Great Lakes. Wonderful. Tomorrow will be about the same across the Lower Ohio Valley, just a tad warmer. High will be near 81F, but we'll still have those dry dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s. Sunny skies will prevail as well. All good things must come to end, unfortunately. Tomorrow night those winds will begin to shift to the east, and eventually a southerly flow will develop by Sunday. The morning will be still cool, near 58F, but the heat and humidity levels will rise going into the afternoon. High near 88F, with the hot sun shining perhaps some late afternoon clouds. Going into Sunday night, a surface cold front will be located northwest of the area. As clouds increase ahead of the front and the tropical air mass fully in place, lows for Monday morning will be quite warmer than the previous few mornings, near 69F. The front, according to the latest 12z model runs, will be stalling out near I-70 during the day Monday. The greatest chance of rain here in the area will be north of US-50, but going to go with a 20% chance of a storm areawide Monday. There will be a mix of sun and clouds Monday, with even warmer conditions. The high will be near 90F, making it the first 90 degree day officially at EVV for the year. It will be muggy as well, with surface dewpoint values approaching 70F. The upper high anchored over the Southeast US looks to dominant our weather through midweek.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: No tropical cyclones expected over the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: Hurricane Cristina has weakened from the CAT 4 she was yesterday, with the latest 10 AM advisory it has weakened to a 100 MPH CAT 2. This thing will continue to weaken, as sea surface temperatures rapidly drop off in its coming environment. Also, a sharp upper trough from the west will shear the storm making the environment too hostile for continued tropical cyclone existence. It's forecast to become a Tropical Depression by early Monday.

Updated Outlook: June 12, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: Pretty nice day today. At 2 PM, the temperature at Evansville Regional was 80F with a dewpoint of 63F. Relatively low humidity, along with a mix of sun and clouds, makes this a great day to go outside. For the rest of the day, I'm expecting the partly cloudy skies to continue the rest of the day with a gradual increasing of clouds later this evening, with temperatures falling through the 70s. At 19z today, a shortwave trough was located through central Missouri, along with showers and even a few severe thunderstorms just west of Jonesboro, Ark. This will rotate through the flow and head east, giving the Lower Ohio Valley a chance of showers late tonight into tomorrow. Not expecting a lot of precipiation with this thing, but the best chance for showers/storms tonight will be along and south of the Ohio River. Generally less than 0.25" rain is forecasted. No severe weather is expected. Low temperatures tonight will range from 62 to 66 degrees. Friday we will see a gradual decreasing of the cloud cover, as the surface front and shortwave pass to the east. By afternoon, we should be mostly sunny. High temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80F, with even lower humidity. Should be an absolutely fantastic day weather-wise. Dewpoints will fall to near 50F by late afternoon, so pretty dry air for mid June (we will take it!). Saturday AM is forecasted to be the coolest morning since May 19th. Expecting low temperatures on Saturday to be in the lower 50s, as the 1020MB surface high pressure will be parked on top of the area. It will be quite the refreshing morning. Through the day Saturday, the low humidity and sunshine will continue. Highs once again will be near 80F. Fantastic conditions. On Sunday, there will be a surface cold front well to the west in Central MO. It's forecasted to stall out and I don't think it will make it here into the region, so precipitation chances will be slim to none. Also on Sunday, an upper high (featured below) will develop over the southeastern US and thus our heat levels will rise. Upper 80's seem like a good bet for Sunday, with the skies remaining mostly sunny. We still have not yet officially hit 90F at EVV this year.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: The tropics remain quiet at least in the Atlantic basin. There is no tropical cyclone formation expected in the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season is in full swing. Our 3rd named storm of the year, Cristina, has developed into a CAT 4 Hurricane undergoing rapid intensification last night. Also this is the 2nd major hurricane of the EAST PAC this season along with Amanda, a record for this early in the season.

For more information on Hurricane Cristina go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Evansville Weather Update: May 30, 2014

We are sitting now at 86° as of 2 PM on this Saturday afternoon. The boundary has pushed far enough southwest that the metro will remain storm free today, but areas southwest of a line from Norris City, IL to Mount Vernon, IN to Madisonville, KY need to remain on the lookout for thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon. The cumulus field is along the boundary as well, so most areas northeast of the boundary are mostly sunny this afternoon. The outlook for the remainder of the forecast period looks stormy. Starting tomorrow, the threat for scattered showers/storms will return for the entire area as a southerly flow develops. The upper high that I talked about in the last post will be a bit more to the east and more weaker than I was expecting, so the chance for storms will be higher than what I was expecting for Sunday as well. Highs will probably in the mid 80s, with a mix of sun and clouds outside of thunderstorms. You guessed it for Monday. The chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain across the area during the PM hours. Due to the widespread nature of the storms on Monday, the skies will be mostly cloudy for the day. This will limit the high temperature potential. I think highs for Monday will be only near 80°, but it will remain humid. Again, these storms have the potential for small hail an some torrential rainfall rates, but the severe threat will be low through Monday. On Tuesday, there are some model differences. The NAM really doesn't have a lot of activity during the day, so storm potential would be low. The GFS, on the other hand, has the chance for storms during the day. Going to cite with the GFS, and put thunderstorms in the forecast for Tuesday. Mainly during the PM hours, these storms could be severe especially to the north. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s. Going into midweek next week, our chance for severe weather will be on the increase. The SPC has already issued a severe risk for Tuesday and Wednesday north of I-70. The potential for an MCS developing is there during Tuesday night and Wednesday. These things are hard to forecast, and it could bust a forecast, so be aware of that. As far as the severe risk here in the Evansville area, I think that will be Wednesday night going into Thursday. During the day on Wednesday, the main forcing with be north of the area, along with the jet dynamics. These features will be the focal point for severe storms during the day Wedneday, north of the area. Going into Wednesday night, these features will be slowly sagging to the south. Be aware of the risk for severe weather Wednesday night going into Thursday. I think every form of severe weather will be on the table, including tornadoes. During the day Thursday, the boundary will remain in the area, but the upper support/shear will be lacking. Still the chance for showers/storms will remain during the day Thursday. Haven't spoke much on temperatues, but Tuesday through Thursday highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to near 70. A shortwave, according to the GFS, will be rotating through the flow and be located in Missouri 18z Friday. South of a warm front, severe weather will again be possible. For now, that's all I'm going to say. Stay weather aware this week, as multiple rounds of storms are possible.

Evansville Weather Update: May 29, 2014

It has been a rather cloudy day so far. Clouds have hung in, and our temperature at 1 PM this afternoon is at 79°. We have a few showers out there right now, and the coverage will slightly increase as the afternoon progresses. Looking at high temperatures today in the mid 80s, perhaps a few degrees cooler due to greater than expected cloud cover. Going into tonight, the chance will persist for showers and thunderstorms as the boundary will continue to push south. The GFS for tomorrow is a little more robust for the chance of showers/storms during the day than the NAM. Still, I think the chance of storms will still be around as the boundary remains in the area, especially in the morning. Highs for the day will be in the mid 80s. For Saturday, I expect the boundary will be enough southwest of here that the chance for rain will be low. Highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 80s, with less humid air and some brighter skies. For Sunday, the upper ridge will be place across the Ohio Valley, so going to go with mimimal (20%) chance of thunderstorm activity enough though the GFS has some scattered showers/storms across the area. After a cooler start in the lower 60s Sunday, the high temperature may touch 90°. Our average first 90 degree day is June 1, so we'll be right on track. Monday the chance for scattered showers and storms will once again appear, mainly during the PM hours. We'll continue with the above normal temperatures, with highs on Monday in the upper 80s, with a mix of sun and clouds. Not expecting organized severe weather with these storms over the next couple of days, but some small hail and torrential rain possible with the storms through Monday. The ridge will begin to get beat down as we head into midweek. Ripples of energy will move through the area pretty much on a daily basis, giving us a chance of thunderstorm activity throughout the upcoming week. Also, the hot weather will continue. Highs in the upper 80s near 90 possible along with muggy lows in the upper 60s all week as well. The severe weather potential that I mentioned on the last post looks to be pushed back until Thursday, when the 12z GFS has the cold front moving in. Monitor the weather for Thursday. Cooler conditions will follow that, with highs going back down hopefully into the lower 80s by next Friday. Long term range, the GFS is showing a rather potent low moving through the upper Midwest in the June 8-9 range. Our chance for severe could be amplfied during that time, if the 12z GFS solution happens to be correct.

Evansville Weather Update: May 25, 2014

Today was a pretty nice day. Other than a few showers in the morning hours over Southwest Indiana, the day was pretty nice. High of 81° at Evansville Regional today as well as here at my station here at the house. It will be more muggy tomorrow and with that comes a chance of scattered showers and storms. If you don't see rain tomorrow, than the sky will be partly sunny with a warm high in the mid 80s. Be aware of brief heavy rain and perhaps some small hail with the stronger cells. Tuesday the upper low will be closer to the area, so I think the chance for scattered showers and storms will be just a bit higher. Highs once again will be in the mid to upper 80s. Wednesday we will continue with the summer-like pattern. The air will be humid, and once again there will be a chance of showers and storms. Highs will top once again in the mid 80s, about 5 degrees above the average for this time of year. I haven't mentioned it yet, but overnight temps look to be remain mild with low temps in the middle 60s throughout the week. For our region, I think the best chance for thunderstorm activity will be going into Thursday/Friday as a front approaches the area from the north. Going to have to look out for severe with this, so stay weather aware for those days. Both days will be soupy, with perhaps some cooler/less humid air for the day Friday. Highs on both days will probably in the mid 80s. The front, according to the GFS, will stall just southwest of the area for next weekend. So, that would mean main storm action will be southwest of us. Going to have to wait a couple days to iron out the details. If that would be correct, then next weekend would be a little cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s and less humid, dry conditons. We shall see. Looking past that, the GFS has been consistent in the idea that a rather potent cold front will arrive in the June 3-4 timeframe with an associated deep low pressure system shooting through the Great Lakes. If that solution would be correct, then the chance for severe thunderstorms will be amplified during that time. Not saying it's 100% going to happen, but it needs to be monitored. Once that would shoot through, much cooler air will infiltrate with highs dropping back into the 70s. Of course, that's looking long term. Thanks for reading today's blog!

Evansville Weather Update: 2-6-2014

Welcome back to the blog! My last post was over a year ago back in December 2012, so it has been awhile. Hope to be updating more often.

Well to start, today was pretty cold. The PM high today at Evansville Regional was 16°, with even colder temperatures (in the lower teens) in the northwestern portions. Tonight, we'll drop well down into the single digits, around 3° in the metro. Northern areas will drop to near or below zero. Tomorrow, the high will settle right over us. So, that will mean at least some sun (especially early) and light winds. High temperatures will top out in the upper teens to near 20°. As we head into Friday night however, clouds will increase as an upper level disturbance will move up from the southwest with a chance for a little light snow Saturday AM. Areawide there will be a chance for some snow; highest chance for any accumulation will though be in W KY where models are spitting out QPF number in the 0.05" range. So, areas down that way could pick up <1". Temperatures on Saturday will be warmer, but still cold. Expect highs to top out near 32°. Saturday night into Sunday there will be another chance of snow with a weak surface low riding through Central IL into Indiana. The highest chance for any snowfall will be north of US 50. Only going with a 20%-30% chance in the forecast for the area. Speaking of Saturday night, temperatures will drop into the lower 20s for Church Sunday AM. The day Sunday looks relatively dry; with a slight chance of snow early. Temps will rise to near 30° on Sunday, with mostly cloudy skies.