The Outlook: June 18, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: It was once again a hot, humid day across the Lower Ohio Valley. The temperature reached 94F at EVV this afternoon, 93F at PAH. Besides the heat, we have had a few isolated storms pop up today. There was actually some strong thunderstorms in Southwest IN this afternoon; namely in parts of Gibson, Daviess, Pike, Knox, and Martin counties. These did produce heavy rainfall but they were not severe. The severe weather has been confined to areas east of the area; where severe t'storm watch #326 is in effect from the Southeastern part of Indiana up through Western Pennsylvania. Tonight, we could deal with some of the remants of some strong storms presently in Northern IL, but they are expected to be no more than showers by the time they reach northern stretches of our region. Low tonight near 74F. Another hot one for tomorrow. High temperature near 92F with a mix of sun and cumulus clouds. The chance for a thunderstorm during the afternoon remains, but they will still be isolated in nature. Friday the coverage of showers and thunderstorms look to increase. After another very warm start, near 75F, some convection could be in the area as soon as the morning hours as some of the models advertise. The coverage of the storms will grow as we head into the afternoon Friday as a weak boundary approaches from the northwest. Some of the storms could be strong; but an organized severe threat isn't expected. High temperatures on Friday a touch cooler, near 88F but it will remain humid. Friday night looks like a gradual drying trend. Lows a little cooler (still warm), near 70F. Saturday looks to remain warm and humid as the tropical airmass remains in place; highs near 90F with a mix of sun and clouds. There is a a a bit of model discrepancy for whether showers/storms will be in the area on Saturday. I'm going to cite with the drier NAM solution, but going to leave a 10% chance of a storm just in case. The upper ridge looks to break down and lose its place as a domiant weather factor in the coming days.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: No tropical cyclone formation expected in the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: The NHC has removed the invest area that they previously had south of the Pacific Mexican Coast. Shower and thunderstorm has become too disorganized for any tropical cyclone development in the near term.

CLIMATE EVV:
For yesterday - June 17, 2014:
High 92F Low 75F Avg 84F
Precipitation: 0.00"
Normals for June 17
High 86F Low 65F Avg 75F
Records for June 17
High 100F (1918, 1936) Low 50F (1961)

Since June 1 Precipitation: 2.56" (0.26" above normal)

The Outlook: June 17, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: Just like yesterday, it is hot and it is humid. The temperature at EVV at 3 PM was 91F, a dewpoint of 69F, and there is a southwest wind present at 14 MPH. We have a mix of sun and clouds, with more sun north. There are a few returns on radar, as a few popup showers (really just sprinkles) are around. If you get under one of these, it will not last long - maybe a minute or two today. Temperatures through the evening will fall through the 80s to a rather warm overnight low near 73F. Tomorrow looks about the same as the past few - a mix of sun and clouds with SW breezes with a humid high near 92F. Could see a pop up shower tomorrow as in the summer you can rarely say there's a 0% chance of rain because of the buoyant nature of summer air masses even though there is no "real" forcing mechanism and that there is still an upper high over the region, but they will be isolated. Tomorrow night looks dry with another very warm overnight low near 74F. Really looks about the same for Thursday as well. High temperatures near 92F, with a mix of sun and clouds with a slight (20%) chance of a shower/storm. Broken record. Perhaps on Friday the coverage of the showers/storms will be slightly greater, as the upper high gets beaten down somewhat. 30% chance, so still not very high but it's higher. Highs on Friday near 91F with partly sunny skies. It's going to remain a pretty boring weather pattern through the end of the week.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: No tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: The NHC continues to outline an invest area with a tropical wave well south of Mexico. The showers and storms associated remain disorganized, and thus the NHC has given the wave a 30% chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

The Outlook: June 15, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: Well, the heat and humidity has come as promised. The temperature at EVV at 4 PM was 87F, a muggy dewpoint of 66F, and a wind out of the south at 16 MPH. We have had some shower activity over Southern IL, but it has diminished for now. We have reached our high for the day, and we'll slowly fall through the 80s this evening to a overnight low much warmer than previous mornings, near 71F. The SPC has actually outlined areas northwest of Evansville in Southern IL under a slight risk for severe weather through this evening. The latest HRRR model does fire some more convection today, initating it pretty much along the Mississippi River this evening. We'll see if this plays out. If it does, then there could be a severe t'storm watch issued this evening and some reports of severe weather across Southern IL. I don't it'll make it into Southwest IN or Northwest KY at severe criteria, but we could deal with the remant showers/generic thunderstorms. Tomorrow, with the weak boundary in the area, a few more showers/storms could fire. Sticking with that 40% chance. The sky will be partly cloudy tomorrow, with an afternoon high near 90F. Our first official 90 degree day for the year. Monday night looks dry, low near 71F. The day Tuesday looks dry and hot. The high temperature will be even warmer than Monday, with an afternoon high near 92F. The sky will be mostly sunny, with the muggy dewpoints sticking around - upper 60s. Really nice. Wednesday looks about the same. After a warm start near 70F, the afternoon high will be near 92F. The GFS does fire a few storms during the day, but with the upper high firmly in place across the region I won't put it in the forecast for now. The hot, humid, sunny weather will continue on Wednesday.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: There is no tropical cyclone formation expected over the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: The last advisory has been issued on Cristina. It is now a 35 MPH post-tropical cyclone, with a low central pressure of 1005 MB. It will be pretty much off the radar screen by Monday. Besides Cristina, the NHC has outlined an invest area a few hundred miles south of Guatemala. The NHC has a 10% chance of this thing developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, with a medium 30% chance of development in the next 5 days. The area of disorganized t'storms now is expected to get more organized in upcoming days as the environment is favorable west of the system. We'll keep an eye on it.

The Outlook: June 14. 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: Another beautiful October-like day across the area. Temperature at EVV at 1 PM was 76F, a ridiculously dry dewpoint of 44F, a NNE wind 9 MPH, and a rel humidity of only 32%. We do have a few high clouds across the area, so not the "severe" clear sky from yesterday. Still, very nice and bright. We will rise another few degrees before the day is out, with an afternoon high near 80F. Beginning tonight, we're going to see those winds shift to the east and eventually they will blow from the south going into tomorrow as a southerly flow develops. After a cool start, near 56F Sunday morning, the heat levels will rise going into the afternoon. High near 87F, with more sun early in the day - some late afternoon clouds. Humidity will rise as well, as dewpoint values rise into the upper 60s by late afternoon. It's unfourtunate, I know. Sunday night, with the tropical airmass fullly in place, the low temperature will be much warmer than the previous mornings near 70F. Going into Monday midday, a weak surface boundary approaching from the northwest now looks to spark some scattered storms/showers Monday. The chance for rain Monday looks higher than yesterday's forecast. Rising the chance for rain to 40%, up from the 20% chance yesterday. Forecasting a high of 89F Monday, with the humidity remaining in place. The boundary looks to fizzle out by Mon night/Tuesday, so precipiation chances look slim for Tuesday. The boundary won't give any relief to the heat, though. Forecasting a high of 91F Tuesday, our warmest so far this season as the upper high amplifies over the eastern half of the US. You guessed it, the humidity will remain and the sun will be out. It will be hot.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: No tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: Cristina, now a shadow of its former self, has weakened all the way down to a 70 MPH tropical storm as of the 8 AM PDT advisory. It will continue to weaken, as it slides into the much cooler waters west of Baja California.

Updated Outlook: June 13, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: A severe clear day across the area today along with dewpoints near 50F remind me of an October day rather than a June one. The temperature at EVV at 2 PM was 76F, dewpoint 50F, and a nice northerly wind at 8 MPH. We won't see many days like this over the coming summer months, so take advantage. The open wave did produce some showers as forecast early this morning, but amounts were very light. Picked up 0.01" here in Warrick County, and amounts <0.05" were common across the area. The forecast for tomorrow morning remains refreshing, forecasting a low of 52F here as we go clear sky and calm wind as the 1020MB surface high glides southeast across the Great Lakes. Wonderful. Tomorrow will be about the same across the Lower Ohio Valley, just a tad warmer. High will be near 81F, but we'll still have those dry dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s. Sunny skies will prevail as well. All good things must come to end, unfortunately. Tomorrow night those winds will begin to shift to the east, and eventually a southerly flow will develop by Sunday. The morning will be still cool, near 58F, but the heat and humidity levels will rise going into the afternoon. High near 88F, with the hot sun shining perhaps some late afternoon clouds. Going into Sunday night, a surface cold front will be located northwest of the area. As clouds increase ahead of the front and the tropical air mass fully in place, lows for Monday morning will be quite warmer than the previous few mornings, near 69F. The front, according to the latest 12z model runs, will be stalling out near I-70 during the day Monday. The greatest chance of rain here in the area will be north of US-50, but going to go with a 20% chance of a storm areawide Monday. There will be a mix of sun and clouds Monday, with even warmer conditions. The high will be near 90F, making it the first 90 degree day officially at EVV for the year. It will be muggy as well, with surface dewpoint values approaching 70F. The upper high anchored over the Southeast US looks to dominant our weather through midweek.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: No tropical cyclones expected over the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: Hurricane Cristina has weakened from the CAT 4 she was yesterday, with the latest 10 AM advisory it has weakened to a 100 MPH CAT 2. This thing will continue to weaken, as sea surface temperatures rapidly drop off in its coming environment. Also, a sharp upper trough from the west will shear the storm making the environment too hostile for continued tropical cyclone existence. It's forecast to become a Tropical Depression by early Monday.

Updated Outlook: June 12, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: Pretty nice day today. At 2 PM, the temperature at Evansville Regional was 80F with a dewpoint of 63F. Relatively low humidity, along with a mix of sun and clouds, makes this a great day to go outside. For the rest of the day, I'm expecting the partly cloudy skies to continue the rest of the day with a gradual increasing of clouds later this evening, with temperatures falling through the 70s. At 19z today, a shortwave trough was located through central Missouri, along with showers and even a few severe thunderstorms just west of Jonesboro, Ark. This will rotate through the flow and head east, giving the Lower Ohio Valley a chance of showers late tonight into tomorrow. Not expecting a lot of precipiation with this thing, but the best chance for showers/storms tonight will be along and south of the Ohio River. Generally less than 0.25" rain is forecasted. No severe weather is expected. Low temperatures tonight will range from 62 to 66 degrees. Friday we will see a gradual decreasing of the cloud cover, as the surface front and shortwave pass to the east. By afternoon, we should be mostly sunny. High temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80F, with even lower humidity. Should be an absolutely fantastic day weather-wise. Dewpoints will fall to near 50F by late afternoon, so pretty dry air for mid June (we will take it!). Saturday AM is forecasted to be the coolest morning since May 19th. Expecting low temperatures on Saturday to be in the lower 50s, as the 1020MB surface high pressure will be parked on top of the area. It will be quite the refreshing morning. Through the day Saturday, the low humidity and sunshine will continue. Highs once again will be near 80F. Fantastic conditions. On Sunday, there will be a surface cold front well to the west in Central MO. It's forecasted to stall out and I don't think it will make it here into the region, so precipitation chances will be slim to none. Also on Sunday, an upper high (featured below) will develop over the southeastern US and thus our heat levels will rise. Upper 80's seem like a good bet for Sunday, with the skies remaining mostly sunny. We still have not yet officially hit 90F at EVV this year.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: The tropics remain quiet at least in the Atlantic basin. There is no tropical cyclone formation expected in the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season is in full swing. Our 3rd named storm of the year, Cristina, has developed into a CAT 4 Hurricane undergoing rapid intensification last night. Also this is the 2nd major hurricane of the EAST PAC this season along with Amanda, a record for this early in the season.

For more information on Hurricane Cristina go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac