Cool Night Tonight & Muggy Weather to Return Later this Week + Tropical Update

Tonight is the a night to open the windows up and let some refreshing air come through the house! Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the upper 50's around Evansville, with cooler temperatures to the north. Tomorrow will be another wonderful day to get outside. High temperatures will be in the low to middle 80's with pleasant humidity.

Unfortunately, muggy air will return. I think Tuesday's humidity will be tolerable, but you'll begin to feel the muggy air beginning on Wednesday. A slight chance for rain is possible on Tuesday (especially late) as a dying complex of showers and thunderstorms comes in from the west. Again, best chance of rain with that will be west of the Wabash River. Otherwise, the only hope for rain late this week is the isolated to scattered activity to develop in the day. 

TROPICS: Former Hurricane Irene in now pushing into northern New England. Irene first made landfall in the outer banks of North Carolina early Saturday morning as a 85 MPH category 1 hurricane. Irene then made a second landfall at NYC as a 65 MPH tropical storm. The big story with Irene is now the flooding that is on going for much of the eastern seaboard; especially into New England/Mid-Atlantic. Unfortunately, we have lost 21 lives (as of right now, hope number doesn't go up) because of the impacts of Irene.

We also have Tropical Storm Jose 125 miles northwest of Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the island of Bermuda. Jose is beginning to look very disorganized, and is expected to fizzle out here in the next couple of days. Another area of interest is located off of the African coast right now. In fact, the NHC is giving this invest area a near 100% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. It's name would be Katia. Some of the models ramp this thing up into a hurricane later on in the week potentially affected the eastern shore of the U.S. again. Of course, we'll have to watch it. We are now in the heart of cape Verde/hurricane season so we'll have to watch these African waves closely. More details following this blog.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Comfortable. Lows in the upper 50's.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower to middle 80's

High Temperatures Across U.S Yesterday

Low Temperatures Across U.S. Yesterday

SPC'S Convective Outlook for Tomorrow

Watch/Warning Map as of 9:15 PM CDT

Tropical Storm Jose Image

T.S. Jose Track

Invest Area off African Coast Model Tracks

Vermont Flood Pics because of Irene (@JimCantore)

Hot & Muggy Today w/ Rain Chances & Update on the Tropics

It will be once again hot and muggy today. There is also a threat for showers and thunderstorms today. There is currently a large area of rain west of I-57 in the St. Louis area. At the very least we will receive some mid and high level clouds from this complex and MAYBE some rain. Best chance of rain will be to the west of the Wabash River, but Evansville and points to the east will likely stay dry.

Once we clear out, thunderstorms are also possible into the evening/overnight hours. The Storm Prediction Center did have portions of southeast Illinois and Knox County, IN under a slight risk yesterday which has since been dropped. Still, I think a few strong storms are possible northwest of Evansville tonight and into the morning hours. It's not out of the question that Evansville will have any storms to deal with.

TROPICS: We are now beginning to enter one of the most active parts of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical Storm Harvey is now just offshore of Belize. Maximum sustained winds are 60 MPH and there is a minimum central pressure of 998 MB as of the 10:00 AM advisory. Harvey is expected to remain as a strong tropical storm as moves inland into Belize later today and dump some very heavy rain into Central America.

There are also two other invest areas in the Atlantic currently. One is located east of the Leeward Islands and will continue to jog to the west in the coming days. In fact, the National Hurricane Center has given this area a 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. If it does it's name would be Irene. It's not out of the question that the United States will have to deal with this entity later on next week, potentially on Friday. The 2nd wave just came of the African coast and is currently located near Cape Verde. The NHC has given this wave a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. This however, will not be affecting anybody except maybe the fish!

Today: Sct'd showers. Partly cloudy elsewhere, highs around 90
Today: Thunderstorms. A few strong not out of the question. Partly to mostly cloudy, lows in the upper 60's.

High Temperatures Across U.S. Yesterday

Low Temperatures across U.S. Yesterday

SPC'S Convective Outlook Today

Watch/Warning Map as of 10:30 AM

Tropical Storm Harvey Image

Tropical Storm Harvey Track

Invest 97L Image

Invest 97L Model Forecasts

Steamy Weather To Come & Invest 93L

After the recent taste of fall, the humidity levels will begin to nose up once again. Tomorrow is when you'll begin to notice the humidity levels go up. Dew points values will be in the muggy category and I think that we're going to have to deal with steamy air over the weekend and into next week. Temperatures will generally be around 90, but some days will make it into the lower 90's.

A few t'showers are possible tonight and tomorrow associated with a weak front. They will be in a isolated to widely scattered fashion, so some areas will remain dry. I think most of us would say that we need some rain! Another solid chance is setting up for Saturday night and Sunday with another frontal boundary.

TROPICS: There is no current storms at this time, but there are two invest areas. There is an area south of Jamaica, and an other way out in the eastern Atlantic. The wave south of Jamaica has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, and the 2nd wave in the eastern Atlantic has a 10% chance of development. The 1st wave likely will head into central America possibility as a tropical storm. It's name would be Harvey. The 2nd wave that just came off of Africa is one that we'll have to watch. Potential effects on Caribbean islands and United States are possible. There is still a lot of speculation, but as I said we'll have to watch it.

Tonight: T'Shower possible, muggy, lows in the upper 60's
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, with more humid conditions, highs around 90

High Temperatures across U.S. Yesterday

Low Temperatures Across U.S. Yesterday

SPC'S Convective Outlook for Tomorrow

Watch/Warning Map as of 10:00 PM

Invest 93L Image (south of Jamaica)

Invest 93L Model Forecasts

Invest 93L Intensity Forecasts

Two Sunny Days to Come & Update on Tropical Storm Gert

We are currently enjoying a nice and pleasant night. Temperatures are falling through the 70's right now, and will continue to drop to an overnight low around 60. We had to deal with some stubborn low clouds this morning and afternoon, but they began to move out as we headed through the evening making a spectacular sunset. Sorry I couldn't get a picture but take my word for it!

Tomorrow will be just a wonderful day with mostly sunny skies and pleasant humidity levels. A few cumulus clouds possible in the afternoon, but otherwise bright sunshine. Tuesday will be just a touch warmer but still mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the middle 80's. Our next chance of rain will arrive on Thursday when our next cold front will push through the area. Another chance of rain on Saturday/Sunday associated with an other frontal boundary.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Gert has formed and is currently 215 miles southeast from Bermuda moving to the NNE at 8 MPH. Gert has maximum sustained winds up to 45 MPH with a minimum central pressure 1008 MB and is expected to become a rather strong tropical storm. Thus, the National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm warning for the island of Bermuda. Track of T.S. Gert and satellite image of Gert following this blog post. Another area south of T.S. Gert has a 30% chance of developing (according to the NHC) into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Tonight: Clear, lows around 60
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with pleasant humidity levels, highs in the lower 80's

High Temperatures Across U.S. Yesterday

Low Temperatures Across U.S. Yesterday

SPC'S Convective Outlook for Tomorrow

Watch/Warning Map as of 9:15 PM

Tropical Storm Gert Image

Track of Tropical Storm Gert

Model Forecasts for T.S. Gert

Model Intensity Forecasts

Severe Weather Threat This Afternoon & Overnight

A slight risk for severe weather has been issued for the entire tri-state today. Severe storms look like they could come in two waves. One, in the afternoon/evening hours and a another round possible overnight into the early morning hours of Tuesday for our southern counties. Damaging winds and large hail possible with all storms that get going. Heavy, flooding rains and frequent cloud to ground lightning a secondary threat.

SPC'S Convective Outlook for Today

Severe Weather Threat Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has already been posted for most of Southern Illinois (except Clay, Richland, Lawrence County) until 1:00 AM CDT. As of right now, a broken line of thunderstorms in Missouri continues to push towards the ESE. They are beginning to weaken, but a more favorable environment will be present once the storms cross the Mississippi River. 20-30 knots of shear and 3,000-5,000 J/KG cape will help the storms out as they move into Illinois. The main threat we these storms will be damaging winds southwest of Evansville. Storm Prediction Center hinting on wind gusts with strongest storms up to 75 MPH. I will analyze tomorrow's severe weather threat in a blog post tomorrow.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #739 Graphic

Slight Risk Sunday & Monday

A slight risk for severe weather for all of the tri-state tomorrow. Looks like a few severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight and into the early morning hours associated with a mid level shortwave and a boundary that is currently resided in eastern Missouri. Also, a few severe warnings possible with the pop up variety type of storms tomorrow afternoon and in the overnight hours associated with a frontal boundary.

Monday's severe threat looks to be a bit more widespread. A possible MCS could be possible as a boundary pushes through the area. The severe weather threat will be enhanced when another shortwave will push across Missouri and potentially affecting southwestern sections of the tri-state which is where the slight risk exists.

TROPICS: Tropical Depression Emily has reformed near the Bahamas. If you recall on the blog a few days ago I mentioned that I wouldn't be surprised if Emily would be downgraded to a remnant low and that's what happened. Emily is not expected to do much just re curve out to sea as a minimal tropical storm or just remaining a tropical depression. More details in the weather discussion.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, a few showers and storms developing, lows in the lower to mid 70's
Tomorrow: Showers ending in the morning, partly sunny, chance of storms developing in afternoon, highs in the lower 90's

High Temperatures across U.S. Yesterday

Low Temperatures across U.S. Yesterday

SPC'S Convective Outlook for Tomorrow (includes entire tri-state)

Watch/Warning map as of 10:00 PM:

Tropical Depression Emily Image

Track of Tropical Depression Emily

Model Forecasts

Model Intensity Forecast

Tremendous Day for Early August & Storm Chances?

What a wonderful day! Temperatures this afternoon have made it only into the upper 80's but the real kicker is the dewpoints. Dewpoint values range from the upper 50's to the lower 60's which is down right comfortable. This comes after one of the most humid days of the year where values were in the upper 70's! What relief a cold front can do.

I'm not so sure this will last. Tomorrow looks kinda wet and stormy when a complex of showers and storms will come into the area. It will also a bit more humid, with dewpoint values in the lower 70's. Highs will probably be around 90 with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Looking out a bit long range, early next week looks rather nice. Model data suggests an increase in our rain chances and a cool down. How cool am I taking about? Well I'd say low to middle 80's.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Emily does not look as nearly as impressive as it had been overnight. Dry air along with some interaction with land as weakened Emily down to a 40 MPH storm. Hurricane hunters have not found a low level circulation today so this thing might be nothing here in the next couple days. This is one of the most difficult forecast of a tropical cyclone we've had to deal with so far this hurricane season. Look after this blog post on the weather discussion to find model data along with National Hurricane Center tracks/forecasts.

Rest of today: Sunny, pleasant, temps falling through the 80's

Tonight: A few clouds around, humidity increasing, lows around 70

Tomorrow: Partly Sunny, 40% chance of showers and storms, more humid, highs around 90

High Temperatures across U.S. Yesterday:

Low Temperatures Across U.S. Yesterday:

SPC'S Convective Outlook for today

Watch/Warning map as of 3:30 PM

Tropical Storm Emily Image

Track of Tropical Storm Emily

Model Forecasts

Model Intensity Forecasts