Evansville Weather Update: December 27, 2012

After the historical blizzard with 7.7" of snow at Evansville's regional airport and 1'+ over portions of southern Illinois, the snow has tapered over today. The temperature today will rise to 35, with cloudy skies. Tomorrow, clouds will be with us all day and we'll see a high temperature near 40 after a low in the mid 20's. To our south, a relatively weak system will be pushing northeast. Generally light rain will develop and spread north toward the southern part of the area midday tomorrow. There are differences between the models as if we'll see any wintry precip or not. The NAM has a more southeasterly track to the low, while the GFS has a closer track meaning more precipitation for our area. If the GFS has its way, an 1"of snow is not out of the question especially for areas northwest of the city of Evansville. If the NAM has its way, then light rain will spread across southeastern portions of the area tomorrow evening, with no precipitation at all for the Evansville area. This is nothing to make hay out of, but a rain changing to snow situation is possible tomorrow night. With that, low temps on Saturday morning will be down into the upper 20's. Saturday looks cold and mostly cloudy with high temperatures into the mid 30's with breezy conditions. A few rain/snow showers look possible especially early. After a chilly low on Sunday around 20, skies on Sunday will be brighter with a high temp in the upper 30's.

Evansville Weather Update: 6-30-2012

An extremely hot day yesterday with a high temperature of 107, a new record high surpassing the 1952 old record of 103. On Wednesday the high was 107 as well (which broke the daily record high and monthly temp!), and I think we'll be above 100 for Saturday and Sunday then we'll begin to cool down (basically less hot) next week. Any shower activity today will be north of US Route 50 in our northern counties, and even that is a low chance. High temperatures will be near what they have been for the past couple days, around 105 degrees. That will easily surpass the current record for tomorrow which is 100. For tonight the temperature will drop into the low 70's. Sunday will once again be very hot. High temps may be a couple degrees cooler, but not by much with temps between 100-105 with mostly sunny skies. There could be an isolated thunderstorm, but I wouldn't count on it. Monday morning we'll start in the mid 70's and rise to a humid high in the upper 90's. Once again on Sunday afternoon there will be a chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but it is a low chance. Monday there will be better coverage of showers but just scattered, especially in the afternoon. High temps on Monday will still be hot, in the upper 90's with a mix of sun and clouds. Tuesday morning we'll be in the low 70's with a clear sky. As the past previous days, there will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area. It will be hot & humid, with a couple degree cooler high of 96. The 4th of July looks mostly dry at this point with a hot high STILL in the mid to upper 90's with a mostly sunny sky. A reminder: the city of Evansville has banned ALL private fireworks due to dry conditions. There WILL be the public display along the river Wednesday night. With some moisture coming up from the south, I think the best chance of any rain (only 30%) will be on Thursday. The chance of rain along with the added cloud cover will cool high temperatures in the middle 90's. For Friday it will still be hot with temps starting in the 70's rising into the mid to upper 90's. The sky Friday will be partly cloudy. A preview of next Saturday shows a frontal boundary draped in northern IN, IL, and OH with a band of scattered showers and storms with it. That won't make it here Saturday, so we'll still in the oven with highs in the mid 90's.

This heat wave will just not stop!

Evansville Weather Update: 6-14-2012

General Evansville Area Forecast for the Next 7 Days...

Thursday, June 14: Mostly Sunny, Turning Warmer

High 86-90

Low 56-60

Chance of Rain: 0%

Friday, June 15: Mix of Sun and Clouds, Hot with Tolerable Humidity, Isolated PM Shower or Storm esp. South

High 90-94

Low 57-61

Chance of Rain: 20%

Saturday, June 16: Partly Cloudy, Hot and Turning Humid, Isolated to Perhaps Scattered PM Showers/Storms

High 89-93

Low 66-70

Chance of Rain: 40%

Father's Day: Mix of Sun and Clouds, Hot, Chance of a shower or storm esp. North

High 90-94

Low 65-69

Chance of Rain: 20%

Monday, June 18: Mostly Sunny, Hot and perhaps slightly lower humidity, Chance of a Storm

High 89-93

Low 64-68

Chance of Rain: 30%

Tuesday, June 19: Partly Sunny, Breezy and Hot

High 90-94

Low 66-70

Chance of Rain: 10%

Wednesday, June 20: Mostly Sunny, Hot and Humid

High 90-94

Low 65-70
Chance of Rain: 0%

Evansville Weather Update: 6-8-2012

Temperatures today were above normal for early June (average high is 84) with a high temperature of 87 at EVV, with dewpoints in the upper 40's and low 50's throughout the day which was quite comfortable. Tomorrow will be a bit more humid but not too bad and tomorrow will also a bit warmer with high temperatures in the upper 80's to near 90. We may see a few afternoon clouds, but most of the day looks mostly sunny. The humidity will rise once again on Sunday with moisture increasing from the south. Also, clouds will be increasing throughout the day as a few scattered showers will move up from the south late in the day. It won't be much of a deal though. Temperatures will be a bit cooler with the added clouds, highs in the low 80's. Really throughout the day Monday there will be a chance of rain due to a approaching cold front along with an upper low. The higher amount of rain I think will be east of highway 41. There could be a strong storm, but we will just have to wait and see. High temperatures on Monday will be near 80.

Severe Risk Tomorrow & Cooler Weather for Mid-week

RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE STATE: Heat is the word today, especially in southern areas. It's 90 degrees in Evansville as of 2 CT/3 ET, 87 in Vincennes, and 85 in Bloomington as of 3:00 PM. I'm also watching a few showers across the far north in Lake, Porter, and La Grange counties, moving east. Also worth noting today, there is a slight risk for severe weather for two Indiana counties: Lake & Newton. Some strong cells could move into northwest Indiana the rest of the day. Tomorrow there is a slight risk for severe weather across most of the state, and I'll talk more about that later on.

3 DAY OUTLOOK

Rest of today: As I mentioned earlier there is the potential for strong thunderstorms for northwestern Indiana, hail and wind the threats. Partly cloudy skies will remain through the evening, with an isolated thundershower possible before sunset.

Monday: Really throughout the day we have the chance of showers and thunderstorms with a few of them being severe. We could have a batch of showers and storms moving into the state very early in the morning, with the remnants of the developing storms in central and northern Illinois right now. Then in the afternoon, we will have the best chance for severe. The CAPE values mid-day tomorrow will be in the 1,000 to 3,000 J/KG range, which is plenty ripe for severe thunderstorms. There is a slight risk for areas southeast of a line from Lafayette to Peru to Kendallville, so basically all of the state is in a slight risk. The threats tomorrow afternoon will be large hail & damaging winds over 60 MPH. Looking over the data I only see a low tornado threat, only if an MCS forms which then there could be a brief spin-up. High temperatures tomorrow: Indianapolis: 77, Evansville: 82, Fort Wayne: 76, Terre Haute: 79, and Muncie: 78.

Tuesday: As the remnants of the storms push southeast, I think we'll have a pretty decent day Tuesday. There could a shower or thunderstorm for Southern Indiana in the morning, but that will pull off to the southeast into KY by afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday will be like this: Indianapolis: 74, Fort Wayne: 72, Evansville: 76, South Bend: 69, and Columbus: 74.The sky cover across the state on Tuesday will be partly cloudy.

Wednesday: It will definitely be a cooler morning. Low temperatures in general will be near 50, with upper 40's north, and low 50's south. A few isolated showers will also be around for our Wednesday, especially in northern counties. Skies will be brighter the farther south you go. High temperatures - Indianapolis: 71, Evansville: 73, Fort Wayne: 66, Gary: 63, Kokomo: 70, and Bloomington: 72.

3 Day Outlook - SLIGHT risk for Severe Weather Tomorrow for Central/Southern IN & Tracking major WARMTH for Wednesday

A cool, cloudy day across most of the state today. I am currently tracking showers and thunderstorms across northern Indiana. Cities dealing with rain right now (8:20 PM ET) include: Winamac, Valparaiso, Knox, Plymouth, Rochester, and approaching South Bend.  These showers and storms are heading toward the northeast, and will affect portions of Elkhart, Noble, Kosciusko, Whitley, and La Grange counties in the next 30 minutes.                        

      Radar out of NWS Northern Indiana (8:22 pm ET)

Temperatures across the state today varied quite significantly. The high temperature at Evansville was 82, Indianapolis: 62, and Fort Wayne: 64 degrees. That is because a warm/stationary front was present across Southwest Indiana, making temperatures soar across most of Southwest and South-central Indiana. Tomorrow there is a SLIGHT risk for severe weather out for areas basically along and south of a line from Veedersburg to Kokomo to Decatur.

TIMING: Storms will begin to fire near 3 PM ET, mainly across Central Indiana. These storms will likely be cellular at first, and may later form into line segments. They will gradually slide to the south and weaken by early evening. Winds gusts to 60 MPH and severe hail are the threats here. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be warmer than today. Indianapolis: 75, Evansville: 82, Fort Wayne: 71, and South Bend: 66. Skies will be mainly cloudy, with a break from time to time. For Tuesday, mostly the southern half of the state will have a chance of rain. The skies will remain mostly cloudy. High temperatures - Evansville: 82, Indianapolis: 79, Fort Wayne: 76, South Bend: 75, and Lafayette: 78. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms throughout the day as the warm front pushes through the state on Wednesday. After a very mild start to the day in the 60's, Wednesday's highs will be quite warm (maybe even hot for some folks!) and breezy. Highs - Evansville: 87, Indianapolis: 86, Fort Wayne: 86, Terre Haute: 88, and Muncie: 86.

Weather Update: 4-7-2012

A nice Saturday across the region with a high temperature of 72 after a chilly morning low of 36. We've seen increasing clouds throughout the day ahead of a cold front right now (10:00 PM) along or just east of the Mississippi River. There could be an isolated sprinkle or two, but 95% of the area will remain dry. Overnight here in Warrick County we'll drop to near 50 with clouds. Easter Sunday we'll be dry and a bit breezy, with high temperatures near 68. Not to mention, there will be plenty of sun to go around. Definitely will be a great day to go Easter egg hunting, or just going to sunrise church service with skies at daybreak clear. Monday looks mostly sunny and breezy once again, with high temperatures near 70 degrees. Temps Tuesday morning look pretty chilly. Low temperatures will be down into the upper 30's. High temps on Tuesday afternoon in Warrick County will be cooler than Monday, with actual high temperatures into the low 60's and breezy conditions. Wednesday morning there will be the potential for a widespread frost. It looks like, for now, lows will be near 35 a light NW wind and clear skies. I don't think a freeze will happen, but of course we'll just have to wait and see. Wednesday high temperatures will be a quite brisk with highs near 57 degrees. Once again, Thursday morning we could have frost. Low temperatures will be down into the mid 30's again with clear skies. There is a bit of a model difference for Thursday. The ECMWF has a system moving in late with the potential for some showers later in the day. On the other hand, the GFS does not move the system in until Friday. For now, I'm sticking with the GFS solution. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to or slightly higher to Wednesday's, with highs near 60 degrees. During the day Friday we will see an increase in clouds, with high temperatures warmer than Thursday, into the upper 60's. It looks like some rain could move in as early as Friday night, but nothing really long lasting. High temperatures next Saturday will be much warmer, as a strong south flow develops with highs up into the mid 70's with some clouds around. It looks like the main area of storms will move in Sunday, that is if you are citing with the GFS. The timing of this system will most likely change, so keep that in mind if you have anything planned next weekend.

Weather Update: 4-3-2012

Today was a partly cloudy & warm day with a high temp at Evansville of 83. The severe weather threat still does  exist tonight. Even though SPC has dropped the slight risk for severe weather, I still think an isolated severe storm will be possible. As I write this update as of about 9:45 PM CDT, a developing line of showers and thunderstorms is getting going southeast of Saint Louis along the Mississippi River. With this complex, a strong storm or two will be possible overnight. The low temperature overnight near 61 degrees. Tomorrow looks cloudy and cooler, with a high around 71. Rainfall tomorrow will arrive around midnight. There could be a strong storm southwest of Warrick County, but I think where we are it will be okay. It looks like that band of showers could go on until mid-morning on Thursday. Rainfall amounts could be in the half inch range, but the latest run of the GFS is suggesting much less than that. High temperature for a change will be below normal on Thursday, with highs around 60 degrees. Friday night skies will clear out and temps will fall rapidly. I'm thinking lows Friday morning will be in the upper 30's. I don't think frost will be an issue, but we'll just have to wait and see. As the high pressure system settles down from Canada, a northerly to northeast wind will develop on Friday. I think high temperatures on Friday will be around 63, with again some breezy conditions. Saturday looks nicer and warmer. High temperatures on Saturday afternoon around 69 degrees. Some high clouds will move in later in the day ahead of a cold front set to move in here on Easter Sunday. There could be a few isolated showers in the county Sunday morning with the cold front, but the situation does not look as wet as it did a couple of days ago. I think skies will turn partly cloudy Sunday afternoon. High temps pretty similar to Saturday, near 70 degrees. Next Monday looks slightly cooler and dry. After a cool start in the low 40's, high temps will make it to near 65 with a decent amount of sun. Tuesday morning the ECMWF is suggesting the potential for a little light rain, but nothing too heavy. High temperatures on Tuesday also will be cool here in Warrick County, with temps into the lower 60's.

Weather Update: 4-1-2012

If you were outside earlier today, you knew that it was pretty warm and also a bit humid. The high today at my house was 87, while at Evansville Regional Airport the high temperature made it to 86 which broke the record high of 85 set back in 1940. Tomorrow morning we'll only drop to 61 degrees which is 1 degree off our normal high temperature! Tomorrow afternoon there will be a bit of a temperature divide. High temperatures southwest of Warrick County (let's say down around Morganfield, KY) should be in the middle 80's, while areas like Jasper, IN could be in the middle 70's. Why? Well there will be a warm/stationary front setting up in between. I think here in Warrick County it will be more like 82. Tuesday there will be a chance of scattered showers and storms. I think some of these storms could be strong, so keep an eye out because I'll have an update tomorrow afternoon. The high temperature on Tuesday will be around 82 degrees. Wednesday morning there could be a few scattered showers around with the boundary still in the area. The more heavier rain will arrive Wednesday night/early Thursday morning with the upper low I was talking about yesterday. A gradual increase in clouds Wednesday will warrant the chance of precipitation later on in the day. There could be a strong storm, but the CAPE values will be south of here. High temps will be cooler, but still above average with a high temperature around 71. It's worth noting that the ECMWF does not have the rain into Warrick County by daybreak Thursday. Thursday looks wet and cloudy. Rain will be around all day. The Euro model is suggesting rain could become moderate to heavy during the mid-day hours. Again, a storm can't be ruled out - updates later on. I'll go with 62 for a high on Thursday. As for Thursday night, the GFS is suggesting a complex of showers and thunderstorms will develop in SE MO and move into our area before midnight. On the other hand, the ECMWF has the upper low south of here in West TN which would suggest that the storms would fire down there. Either way, rainfall could be significant. The models will be more likely to agree later on in the week. The phasing that I was talking about for Friday looks like it won't happen. If this would have happened, then a frost could have been possible for Friday and/or Saturday morning. Now, it looks like temps will only drop into the upper 40's for Friday morning. Skies for Friday look to turn partly cloudy with highs near 68 degrees. Saturday looks dry with a blend of sun and clouds with a gradual increase late in the day ahead of the next system. Highs will make it to near 73 with a light northeast wind. Easter Sunday looks wet. A cold front will progress through the area Sunday AM. With this, a band showers and perhaps thunderstorms will be possible. We'll have to fine tune that forecast as new data comes on in! High temps on Easter will make it to near 71 degrees.

Weather Update: 3-31-2012

A cool, cloudy day so far today across Warrick County. The temperature as of 1:00 PM was only 62 with overcast skies and a limited visibility of 2 miles. These low stratus clouds are slowly breaking up and once they do we'll make it to a high near 70 later today. Tomorrow morning we will drop to 54 as skies partially clear out in the morning. We'll pick up a few clouds tomorrow as some rain showers develop to our north and east. It's not out of the question that we'll pick up a few showers, but the solid area of rain we'll stay northeast of here in the Cincinnati and Indianapolis area. A southwesterly breeze will develop tomorrow and warm temps up to 82. On Monday it will really turn warm, as skies brighten up. After a warm start in the low 60's, high temperatures will be well up into the 80's perhaps near record levels. I'm forecasting 86 for Monday which is 25 degrees above normal. You know that severe risk for Monday I had for Monday night on my last blog post, that system look like now that it will cut off into an upper low and stay over the southwest on Monday and Tuesday. On Tuesday a system will move through central IL and northern IN. This system will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. This could have a few scattered showers and storms with it. I think a severe storm is not out of the question, since CAPE values are well over 2000 J/KG Tuesday. High temps on Tuesday will be up near 84 degrees. The ECMWF is much slower with the front, it has it coming in here Wednesday & washing it out south of here. The high on Wednesday will be cooler, around 70 degrees with rain and clouds in the area. That upper low that I was talking about earlier will send waves of energy for late Wednesday and Thursday. Rain will likely move into Warrick County by Wednesday night. Rainfall could turn heavy for Wednesday night. The ECMWF is suggesting rainfall AMOUNTS will be over an inch. This rain will continue into the day Thursday with high temps could only be in the 50's as rain falls and the upper low is close to us creating evaporative cooling. Friday morning could be quite chilly if skies clear out. The ECMWF phases the upper low and a shortwave trough east of here which could lead to a chilly day on Friday. On the other hand, the GFS does not phase things up. This would lead to  a warmer Friday. I'm leaning toward the ECMWF, so I'm forecasting a high near 60 (if true phasing would occur, then the high would be down into the 50's) on Friday with lots of sun. Of course, if phasing could occur a frost could be possible Friday/and or Saturday morning. We'll make it into the mid 60's on Saturday with partly cloudy skies.

Weather Update: 3-28-2012

As I write this update, the temperature at Evansville was 63 with a calm wind. Tonight we'll fall to 51 with some high clouds. With the frontal passage earlier today, tomorrow's temperature will be cooler. The high temperature will be around 74, with us at least picking up a few clouds from the complex of showers and storms now over western Missouri. Friday we'll see a few scattered showers as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Then, a cold front will move through the area Friday evening with a few scattered showers or t'storms. The GFS model is pretty aggressive with the rainfall. The high temp on Friday will be near 80 degrees with some clouds at times. As the front moves through, the temps on Saturday morning will drop into the low 50's. We'll warm on Saturday to a high near 72 degrees with a light wind. Sunday will be very warm as gusty southwest winds pick up. The high will rise up to 82, with a mostly sunny sky. Monday looks nice MOST of the day, with a very warm high in the low to perhaps mid 80's. Then the potential for severe weather will occur Monday night and early Tuesday. A deepening surface low will move over Wisconsin Monday afternoon/evening. With this, a negative tilted trough will be over the plains and moving east Monday. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible with this setup late Monday. The specific details with this event are still uncertain, so stay tuned here for updates as we get closer. After this moves on through, temps will turn significantly cooler. It looks like Tuesday that we'll only make to around 63, with windy conditions. That temperature is actually a normal high for early April. The low Wednesday morning with be quite cool with temps dropping into the low 40's, which again is right around normal. The temperature will slightly edge up Wednesday, with a high temperature into the mid 60's.

Weather Update: 3-28-2012

As I write this update, the temperature at Evansville was 63 with a calm wind. Tonight we'll fall to 51 with some high clouds. With the frontal passage earlier today, tomorrow's temperature will be cooler. The high temperature will be around 74, with us at least picking up a few clouds from the complex of showers and storms now over western Missouri. Friday we'll see a few scattered showers as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Then, a cold front will move through the area Friday evening with a few scattered showers or t'storms. The GFS model is pretty aggressive with the rainfall. The high temp on Friday will be near 80 degrees with some clouds at times. As the front moves through, the temps on Saturday morning will drop into the low 50's. We'll warm on Saturday to a high near 70 degrees with a light wind. Sunday will be very warm as gusty southwest winds pick up. The high will rise up to 82, with a mostly sunny sky. Monday looks nice MOST of the day, with a very warm high in the low 80's. Then the potential for severe weather will occur Monday night and early Tuesday. A deepening surface will move over Wisconsin Monday afternoon/evening. With this, a negative tilted trough will be over the plains and moving east Monday. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible with this setup late Monday. The specific details with this event are still uncertain, so stay tuned here for updates as we get closer. After this moves on through, temps will turn significantly cooler. It looks like Tuesday that we'll only make to around 63, with windy conditions. That temperature is actually a normal high for early April. The low Wednesday morning with be quite cool with temps dropping into the low 40's, which again is right around normal. The temperature will slightly edge up Wednesday, with a high temperature into the mid 60's

Weather Update: 3-26-2012

Tomorrow morning will the coolest morning here in Warrick County in about two weeks, as lows dip to around 42 degrees. As a warm front moves through the region tomorrow, south winds will pick up and warm temps to near 74. On Wednesday morning a slow moving front will approach the area, perhaps producing a shower or two in the morning. A storm also can not be ruled out. That will clear out by late morning and we'll see a mix of clouds and sun with a high near 81, which is 20 degrees above normal. That front will cool temps down by about 10 degrees on Thursday.  The low temperature on Thursday will be around 48. Thursday afternoon there will be less humidity and less warmth, too. High temps will be near 70 with a clear sky. Clouds will increase Friday as a disturbance moves toward the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF models agree that most of Friday will be dry, with some showers arriving late in the day. The high temperature on Friday here in Warrick County will go up to 77. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday. The potential is there that it could rain on us much of the day. High temperatures on Saturday afternoon will be in the low 70's. Sunday will be a brighter, April Fools day with a cool start near 50, rising to highs in the mid 70's.

Almanac for Today
High Temperature: 73  Low Temperature: 52
Precipitation: 0.00
Normals: High-61 Low-38
Record High: 80 (2007, 1991,1921) Record Low: 10 (1955)

Monthly Stats
Precip: 2.19"
Normal to date: 3.51" (-1.32")
Average Temperature: 58.3
H:70 - L:47

Last Year
High: 43 Low: 32
Precip: 0.20" (Trace of Snow)

Significant Severe/Tornado Outbreak Possible Tomorrow: 3-2-2012

The potential is there for a major outbreak of severe storms and or tornadoes across the Mid-South to Ohio Valley Friday. It looks like the really bad stuff will be from about Nashville to Cincinnati. The Storm Prediction Center may need to issue a HIGH risk by tomorrow morning in central Kentucky where a few strong, long track tornadoes will be a possibility. Currently there is a moderate risk running from western Alabama to Central Ohio. As far as the tri-state is concerned, the entire area is under a MODERATE risk for severe storms.

TIMING: Scattered storms will develop around daybreak Friday morning. The main threat with these storms is hail. That being said, an isolated tornado may be a possibility due to the wind direction shift along the warm front. The big show is not until afternoon. I expect a few super cells to develop around noon, and gradually move east. Temperatures tomorrow will soar into the low 70's, with lots of wind. Then, the potential is there for another line of severe storms (associated w/ the cold front) to arrive in the early afternoon in Evansville. All modes of severe weather will be a possibility: Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all game. I think the biggest TORNADO threat in the tri-state will be in the eastern half of the area. All of the severe ingredients are there: dewpoints in the low 60's, CAPE values over 1500 J/KG, EHI (Energy Helicity Index) values between a 2 and 3, Helicity values (veering of the wind with altitude) over 200 units, and most importantly a trigger.

Have a weather radio handy for tomorrow afternoon and make sure to keep the thing turned ON. DO NOT rely on an outdoor siren, for they are designed for folks who are outside. We are all hoping this is a bust, but as of right now, this doesn't look like it will be the case.

Weather Update: 2-26-2012

Really a nice and mild day across the area today. Temperature as of 3:00 is 58 degrees at Evansville, with lots of  sun. There as been a red flag warning out all day for the Paducah WFO counties because of the relative humidity levels being below 25% and strong southerly winds. Tonight we'll fall between 35-40. Tomorrow looks nice and less windy. Forecasting 57 tomorrow with a decent amount of sun.

On Tuesday clouds will be increasing as the potential for storms increases. High temps on Tuesday between 55-60. Rain will be likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. Severe weather MIGHT be a possibility early Wednesday morning. The wind energy is there, but the instability and moisture levels are marginal. Rainfall amounts between 1/2" and 1" - locally higher amounts with thunderstorms. The day on Wednesday looks very spring-like. High temps will soar into mid to upper 60's with gusty SW winds ahead of the cold front set to arrive Wednesday night.

Thursday looks to be a nice day. Under mainly sunny skies, temps will be cool down into the mid 50's. Friday looks interesting. A surface low will move up from the southern plains and be around St. Louis be Friday afternoon. Temperatures in the afternoon will raise into the low 60's. A few showers or thunderstorms will break out late Friday afternoon, but those showers/storms look not to be severe. Friday evening the window opens for the potential for severe storms as the low rapidly deepens across Michigan. The specific details are up for grabs, so we'll just have to wait and see as we get closer.

 The weather will quiet down next weekend. Skies on Saturday will become partly cloudy. It will be chilly for early March, with highs in the upper 40's to around 50. Morning lows on Sunday morning will be around freezing. Highs on Sunday will once again be chilly, between 45 and 50 degrees. A slight chance of rain exists Sunday, but nothing heavy.

Weather Update: 2-20-2012

After a cold start of 22 degrees, we have enjoyed a nice and sunny President's day with highs in the upper 40's to around 50 degrees. Tonight we fall to around 40 degrees at midnight, then make a slow rise toward the mid 40's by daybreak as south winds pick up. Light rain will accompany this mild start to the day. A trace to 1/10 of an inch of rain will fall between midnight and 6 AM. We should raise to around 54 degrees by afternoon with some sun developing later on.

During the day on Wednesday is when you will really notice the warmth. Under partly cloudy skies, temps will really soar, making it to around 61 in the metro with the potential for higher numbers over western Kentucky. Temps will peak on Thursday afternoon. After a mild start around 46 degrees, high temps will be around 65 degrees by afternoon. Strong southerly winds both Thursday and Wednesday will help the temperature get this warm. Increasing clouds on Thursday will hint at the chance of rain Thursday night. It looks like showers will break out late afternoon ahead of a potent cold front. It looks like a few storms could mix in in our southern counties. Doesn't look like severe weather will be a problem. All those issues should stay south of the tri-state.

Things will turn sharply cooler as we head into Friday. There could even be a few snow flurries as wrap around moisture moves our way. Under mostly cloudy skies, high temps will only make it to 45 with some breezy WNW winds. There is disagreement on the models for Saturday as far as for the temperature. The GFS is printing only a high of 42 on Saturday, while ECMWF has us near 50. The high temp will most likely be somewhere in between so I'm forecasting 46. Both models agree that the day will be sunny. Next Sunday looks decent, but windy with highs in the upper 50's with mostly cloudy skies.

TUE: Light rain early. Clearing late. Breezy. High: 54 Low: 40
WED: Partly cloudy. Windy. High: 61 Low: 39
THU: Increasing clouds. Showers during PM. Windy. High: 65 Low: 46
FRI: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Breezy. High: 45 Low: 37
SAT: Mostly sunny. High: 46 Low: 29
SUN: Partly cloudy. Windy. High: 57 Low: 34
MON: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Breezy. High: 52 Low: 43

Weather Update: 2-18-2012

M. cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures today with highs in the mid to upper 40's. A winter storm will graze southern portions of the area where light snow will be possible. I think Muhlenburg and Ohio counties in Kentucky will be the only ones affected in the viewing area.

WINTER STORM DETAILS: A surface low currently located over south Mississippi will move northeast into South Carolina by tomorrow morning. An upper low now over central Texas will also move northeast with the storm. This upper low will supply the cold air necessary for snow. The window for snowfall in Muhlenburg & Ohio counties will roughly be between 6 AM and noon tomorrow. The latest data is suggesting a dusting to 1/2" of snow will be possible in this time frame. Lexington and Danville, KY could see a couple of inches (there are winter weather advisories out for them) by Sunday evening. Certainly the heavier snow with this storm will be in eastern Kentucky where 6"+ of snow will be likely by Monday morning!

Back home in the tri-state, things will be cloudy and cold. After a morning low around freezing, highs will rebound to around 41 degrees in the afternoon. Breezy winds at 10-15 MPH out of the northeast will make feels like temps in the 30's all day. Clearing skies in the evening will chill things down across the area Monday morning, with low temps down around 24 degrees. Monday looks nice will seasonable highs around 47 degrees. Clouds will increase ahead of a weak system Monday night. It looks like any precipitation that falls in the morning hours on Tuesday will be rather poultry, with amounts around a 1/10 of an inch. A few peeks of sun possible Tuesday afternoon especially southwest of Evansville. Highs on Tuesday will be around 54 with windy conditions.

Wednesday will be breezy and mild. Low temps will be centered around 39 degrees. Look for highs on Wednesday to be around 57, with SW winds sustained between 10 and 20 MPH. Partly cloudy skies will prevail most of the day. Another chance of rain will arrive during the afternoon Thursday, with heavier precip north of I-64. Highs on Thursday will once again be mild with high temps around 55. In general, skies on Friday will be partly cloudy after the light rain moves out in the pre-dawn hours. High temps will be around 46 degrees after a morning low of 35. Next Saturday looks dry. Highs around 43 degrees after a seasonable low of around 26 degrees.

SUN: Cloudy, breezy. Light snow south. High: 41 Low: 32

MON: Mostly sunny. High: 47 Low: 24
TUE: Mainly cloudy, showers early. Windy. High: 54 Low: 39

WED: Partly cloudy, windy. High: 57 Low: 39

THU: Rain late, breezy. High: 55 Low: 40

FRI: Light rain early, partly cloudy. High: 46 Low: 35
SAT: Partly cloudy. High: 43 Low: 26

Heavy rain & even thunder possible Monday-Tuesday + A sharp cool down for Wednesday

After a nice and sunny Sunday, clouds are increasing from the southwest and will overspread the area later tonight. Temperatures right now are in the low 30's, and I expect temperatures throughout the night to keep rising. Temperatures by daybreak Monday will be in the upper 30's. Of course with the southerly flow, a few isolated showers will be possible for mainly areas west of the Wabash tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be mild with highs into the low 50's in Evansville. The main rain event though, doesn't arrive until Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

The coverage in rainfall will be increasing at around midnight Tuesday, and will continue through morning. Rainfall amounts with this system will be rather significant, with amounts between 1/2" and 1". A few thunderstorms will also need to be mentioned with a deep low to our north. Temperatures will also be another big story throughout the day Tuesday. Temps will drop into the upper 30's by afternoon, after a early high in the 50's. Winds on Tuesday will add a nip into the air with breezy WNW winds at around 20 MPH. Tuesday night skies will clear out as high pressure settles in, which will drop temps to around 20 by Wednesday morning. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 30's with lots of sun.

On Thursday a few snow showers will be possible especially northeast of Evansville. Doesn't look like a big deal at this point. The more significant cloud cover will be located east of the city. In general I'm expecting partly cloudy skies with high temps on Thursday around 40 degrees. Clouds on Friday will increase ahead of the next system that will affect the area. Rain showers will breakout late Friday mainly south. High temperatures look to be in the upper 40's. 

Next weekend's outlook looks wet early, then mild late. I've added a chance a rain for early Saturday, which is the same system that might bring rain to the region Friday. High temps around 50 degrees. The ECMWF and GFS models at this point both agree that Sunday will be very mild. Both agree that temps will soar into the low 60's under partly sunny skies.

Rain to arrive Wednesday, Arctic blast by late week

Gradual clearing for Monday as we start out the work week. Clouds will remain locked in for the morning (maybe a few drops or flakes) and maybe early afternoon hours with gradual clearing from northwest to southeast. The sunshine will warm things up in the afternoon to highs in general around 50. Your location will be warmer/cooler depending on how much sun you'll see. After a chilly start around 30 Tuesday, things will warm up nicely into the low or possibly mid 50's by afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Clouds will arrive later in the evening ahead of our storm system that will bring rain to the region on Wednesday.

The light to moderate rain will arrive in the early morning hours on Wednesday and will begin to overspread the southern half of the area by mid-morning. I think showers will be possible through the afternoon, with southeastern areas having it the longest. Rainfall amounts in the Evansville metro I think will be around 1/3 of an inch, with heftier amounts south of the Ohio River. Clouds might break up in the evening, especially areas in southern Illinois. The area of low pressure will pass southeast of here, which is where most of the rain will be. After the rain stops, the Arctic air comes on in!

Thursday will be a true winter day. Highs on Thursday will only be around freezing, with gusty northwest winds & low clouds much of the day. Not to mention, light snow will be possible. Doesn't look like a big deal at this time. Thursday evening skies will clear out for Evansville and points to the SW as a cold night will be shaping up. Low temps Friday morning will be in the low 20's. Highs on Friday will once again be in the low 30's with sun for Evansville and points southwest & more clouds northeast.

The weekend looks dry at this point (other than a few flakes), with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 30's, and warmer on Sunday with high temps around 40 degrees.