3 Day Outlook - SLIGHT risk for Severe Weather Tomorrow for Central/Southern IN & Tracking major WARMTH for Wednesday

A cool, cloudy day across most of the state today. I am currently tracking showers and thunderstorms across northern Indiana. Cities dealing with rain right now (8:20 PM ET) include: Winamac, Valparaiso, Knox, Plymouth, Rochester, and approaching South Bend.  These showers and storms are heading toward the northeast, and will affect portions of Elkhart, Noble, Kosciusko, Whitley, and La Grange counties in the next 30 minutes.                        

      Radar out of NWS Northern Indiana (8:22 pm ET)

Temperatures across the state today varied quite significantly. The high temperature at Evansville was 82, Indianapolis: 62, and Fort Wayne: 64 degrees. That is because a warm/stationary front was present across Southwest Indiana, making temperatures soar across most of Southwest and South-central Indiana. Tomorrow there is a SLIGHT risk for severe weather out for areas basically along and south of a line from Veedersburg to Kokomo to Decatur.

TIMING: Storms will begin to fire near 3 PM ET, mainly across Central Indiana. These storms will likely be cellular at first, and may later form into line segments. They will gradually slide to the south and weaken by early evening. Winds gusts to 60 MPH and severe hail are the threats here. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be warmer than today. Indianapolis: 75, Evansville: 82, Fort Wayne: 71, and South Bend: 66. Skies will be mainly cloudy, with a break from time to time. For Tuesday, mostly the southern half of the state will have a chance of rain. The skies will remain mostly cloudy. High temperatures - Evansville: 82, Indianapolis: 79, Fort Wayne: 76, South Bend: 75, and Lafayette: 78. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms throughout the day as the warm front pushes through the state on Wednesday. After a very mild start to the day in the 60's, Wednesday's highs will be quite warm (maybe even hot for some folks!) and breezy. Highs - Evansville: 87, Indianapolis: 86, Fort Wayne: 86, Terre Haute: 88, and Muncie: 86.

Weather Update: 4-7-2012

A nice Saturday across the region with a high temperature of 72 after a chilly morning low of 36. We've seen increasing clouds throughout the day ahead of a cold front right now (10:00 PM) along or just east of the Mississippi River. There could be an isolated sprinkle or two, but 95% of the area will remain dry. Overnight here in Warrick County we'll drop to near 50 with clouds. Easter Sunday we'll be dry and a bit breezy, with high temperatures near 68. Not to mention, there will be plenty of sun to go around. Definitely will be a great day to go Easter egg hunting, or just going to sunrise church service with skies at daybreak clear. Monday looks mostly sunny and breezy once again, with high temperatures near 70 degrees. Temps Tuesday morning look pretty chilly. Low temperatures will be down into the upper 30's. High temps on Tuesday afternoon in Warrick County will be cooler than Monday, with actual high temperatures into the low 60's and breezy conditions. Wednesday morning there will be the potential for a widespread frost. It looks like, for now, lows will be near 35 a light NW wind and clear skies. I don't think a freeze will happen, but of course we'll just have to wait and see. Wednesday high temperatures will be a quite brisk with highs near 57 degrees. Once again, Thursday morning we could have frost. Low temperatures will be down into the mid 30's again with clear skies. There is a bit of a model difference for Thursday. The ECMWF has a system moving in late with the potential for some showers later in the day. On the other hand, the GFS does not move the system in until Friday. For now, I'm sticking with the GFS solution. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to or slightly higher to Wednesday's, with highs near 60 degrees. During the day Friday we will see an increase in clouds, with high temperatures warmer than Thursday, into the upper 60's. It looks like some rain could move in as early as Friday night, but nothing really long lasting. High temperatures next Saturday will be much warmer, as a strong south flow develops with highs up into the mid 70's with some clouds around. It looks like the main area of storms will move in Sunday, that is if you are citing with the GFS. The timing of this system will most likely change, so keep that in mind if you have anything planned next weekend.

Weather Update: 4-3-2012

Today was a partly cloudy & warm day with a high temp at Evansville of 83. The severe weather threat still does  exist tonight. Even though SPC has dropped the slight risk for severe weather, I still think an isolated severe storm will be possible. As I write this update as of about 9:45 PM CDT, a developing line of showers and thunderstorms is getting going southeast of Saint Louis along the Mississippi River. With this complex, a strong storm or two will be possible overnight. The low temperature overnight near 61 degrees. Tomorrow looks cloudy and cooler, with a high around 71. Rainfall tomorrow will arrive around midnight. There could be a strong storm southwest of Warrick County, but I think where we are it will be okay. It looks like that band of showers could go on until mid-morning on Thursday. Rainfall amounts could be in the half inch range, but the latest run of the GFS is suggesting much less than that. High temperature for a change will be below normal on Thursday, with highs around 60 degrees. Friday night skies will clear out and temps will fall rapidly. I'm thinking lows Friday morning will be in the upper 30's. I don't think frost will be an issue, but we'll just have to wait and see. As the high pressure system settles down from Canada, a northerly to northeast wind will develop on Friday. I think high temperatures on Friday will be around 63, with again some breezy conditions. Saturday looks nicer and warmer. High temperatures on Saturday afternoon around 69 degrees. Some high clouds will move in later in the day ahead of a cold front set to move in here on Easter Sunday. There could be a few isolated showers in the county Sunday morning with the cold front, but the situation does not look as wet as it did a couple of days ago. I think skies will turn partly cloudy Sunday afternoon. High temps pretty similar to Saturday, near 70 degrees. Next Monday looks slightly cooler and dry. After a cool start in the low 40's, high temps will make it to near 65 with a decent amount of sun. Tuesday morning the ECMWF is suggesting the potential for a little light rain, but nothing too heavy. High temperatures on Tuesday also will be cool here in Warrick County, with temps into the lower 60's.

Weather Update: 4-1-2012

If you were outside earlier today, you knew that it was pretty warm and also a bit humid. The high today at my house was 87, while at Evansville Regional Airport the high temperature made it to 86 which broke the record high of 85 set back in 1940. Tomorrow morning we'll only drop to 61 degrees which is 1 degree off our normal high temperature! Tomorrow afternoon there will be a bit of a temperature divide. High temperatures southwest of Warrick County (let's say down around Morganfield, KY) should be in the middle 80's, while areas like Jasper, IN could be in the middle 70's. Why? Well there will be a warm/stationary front setting up in between. I think here in Warrick County it will be more like 82. Tuesday there will be a chance of scattered showers and storms. I think some of these storms could be strong, so keep an eye out because I'll have an update tomorrow afternoon. The high temperature on Tuesday will be around 82 degrees. Wednesday morning there could be a few scattered showers around with the boundary still in the area. The more heavier rain will arrive Wednesday night/early Thursday morning with the upper low I was talking about yesterday. A gradual increase in clouds Wednesday will warrant the chance of precipitation later on in the day. There could be a strong storm, but the CAPE values will be south of here. High temps will be cooler, but still above average with a high temperature around 71. It's worth noting that the ECMWF does not have the rain into Warrick County by daybreak Thursday. Thursday looks wet and cloudy. Rain will be around all day. The Euro model is suggesting rain could become moderate to heavy during the mid-day hours. Again, a storm can't be ruled out - updates later on. I'll go with 62 for a high on Thursday. As for Thursday night, the GFS is suggesting a complex of showers and thunderstorms will develop in SE MO and move into our area before midnight. On the other hand, the ECMWF has the upper low south of here in West TN which would suggest that the storms would fire down there. Either way, rainfall could be significant. The models will be more likely to agree later on in the week. The phasing that I was talking about for Friday looks like it won't happen. If this would have happened, then a frost could have been possible for Friday and/or Saturday morning. Now, it looks like temps will only drop into the upper 40's for Friday morning. Skies for Friday look to turn partly cloudy with highs near 68 degrees. Saturday looks dry with a blend of sun and clouds with a gradual increase late in the day ahead of the next system. Highs will make it to near 73 with a light northeast wind. Easter Sunday looks wet. A cold front will progress through the area Sunday AM. With this, a band showers and perhaps thunderstorms will be possible. We'll have to fine tune that forecast as new data comes on in! High temps on Easter will make it to near 71 degrees.