Evansville Weather Update: May 30, 2014

We are sitting now at 86° as of 2 PM on this Saturday afternoon. The boundary has pushed far enough southwest that the metro will remain storm free today, but areas southwest of a line from Norris City, IL to Mount Vernon, IN to Madisonville, KY need to remain on the lookout for thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon. The cumulus field is along the boundary as well, so most areas northeast of the boundary are mostly sunny this afternoon. The outlook for the remainder of the forecast period looks stormy. Starting tomorrow, the threat for scattered showers/storms will return for the entire area as a southerly flow develops. The upper high that I talked about in the last post will be a bit more to the east and more weaker than I was expecting, so the chance for storms will be higher than what I was expecting for Sunday as well. Highs will probably in the mid 80s, with a mix of sun and clouds outside of thunderstorms. You guessed it for Monday. The chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain across the area during the PM hours. Due to the widespread nature of the storms on Monday, the skies will be mostly cloudy for the day. This will limit the high temperature potential. I think highs for Monday will be only near 80°, but it will remain humid. Again, these storms have the potential for small hail an some torrential rainfall rates, but the severe threat will be low through Monday. On Tuesday, there are some model differences. The NAM really doesn't have a lot of activity during the day, so storm potential would be low. The GFS, on the other hand, has the chance for storms during the day. Going to cite with the GFS, and put thunderstorms in the forecast for Tuesday. Mainly during the PM hours, these storms could be severe especially to the north. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s. Going into midweek next week, our chance for severe weather will be on the increase. The SPC has already issued a severe risk for Tuesday and Wednesday north of I-70. The potential for an MCS developing is there during Tuesday night and Wednesday. These things are hard to forecast, and it could bust a forecast, so be aware of that. As far as the severe risk here in the Evansville area, I think that will be Wednesday night going into Thursday. During the day on Wednesday, the main forcing with be north of the area, along with the jet dynamics. These features will be the focal point for severe storms during the day Wedneday, north of the area. Going into Wednesday night, these features will be slowly sagging to the south. Be aware of the risk for severe weather Wednesday night going into Thursday. I think every form of severe weather will be on the table, including tornadoes. During the day Thursday, the boundary will remain in the area, but the upper support/shear will be lacking. Still the chance for showers/storms will remain during the day Thursday. Haven't spoke much on temperatues, but Tuesday through Thursday highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to near 70. A shortwave, according to the GFS, will be rotating through the flow and be located in Missouri 18z Friday. South of a warm front, severe weather will again be possible. For now, that's all I'm going to say. Stay weather aware this week, as multiple rounds of storms are possible.

Evansville Weather Update: May 29, 2014

It has been a rather cloudy day so far. Clouds have hung in, and our temperature at 1 PM this afternoon is at 79°. We have a few showers out there right now, and the coverage will slightly increase as the afternoon progresses. Looking at high temperatures today in the mid 80s, perhaps a few degrees cooler due to greater than expected cloud cover. Going into tonight, the chance will persist for showers and thunderstorms as the boundary will continue to push south. The GFS for tomorrow is a little more robust for the chance of showers/storms during the day than the NAM. Still, I think the chance of storms will still be around as the boundary remains in the area, especially in the morning. Highs for the day will be in the mid 80s. For Saturday, I expect the boundary will be enough southwest of here that the chance for rain will be low. Highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 80s, with less humid air and some brighter skies. For Sunday, the upper ridge will be place across the Ohio Valley, so going to go with mimimal (20%) chance of thunderstorm activity enough though the GFS has some scattered showers/storms across the area. After a cooler start in the lower 60s Sunday, the high temperature may touch 90°. Our average first 90 degree day is June 1, so we'll be right on track. Monday the chance for scattered showers and storms will once again appear, mainly during the PM hours. We'll continue with the above normal temperatures, with highs on Monday in the upper 80s, with a mix of sun and clouds. Not expecting organized severe weather with these storms over the next couple of days, but some small hail and torrential rain possible with the storms through Monday. The ridge will begin to get beat down as we head into midweek. Ripples of energy will move through the area pretty much on a daily basis, giving us a chance of thunderstorm activity throughout the upcoming week. Also, the hot weather will continue. Highs in the upper 80s near 90 possible along with muggy lows in the upper 60s all week as well. The severe weather potential that I mentioned on the last post looks to be pushed back until Thursday, when the 12z GFS has the cold front moving in. Monitor the weather for Thursday. Cooler conditions will follow that, with highs going back down hopefully into the lower 80s by next Friday. Long term range, the GFS is showing a rather potent low moving through the upper Midwest in the June 8-9 range. Our chance for severe could be amplfied during that time, if the 12z GFS solution happens to be correct.

Evansville Weather Update: May 25, 2014

Today was a pretty nice day. Other than a few showers in the morning hours over Southwest Indiana, the day was pretty nice. High of 81° at Evansville Regional today as well as here at my station here at the house. It will be more muggy tomorrow and with that comes a chance of scattered showers and storms. If you don't see rain tomorrow, than the sky will be partly sunny with a warm high in the mid 80s. Be aware of brief heavy rain and perhaps some small hail with the stronger cells. Tuesday the upper low will be closer to the area, so I think the chance for scattered showers and storms will be just a bit higher. Highs once again will be in the mid to upper 80s. Wednesday we will continue with the summer-like pattern. The air will be humid, and once again there will be a chance of showers and storms. Highs will top once again in the mid 80s, about 5 degrees above the average for this time of year. I haven't mentioned it yet, but overnight temps look to be remain mild with low temps in the middle 60s throughout the week. For our region, I think the best chance for thunderstorm activity will be going into Thursday/Friday as a front approaches the area from the north. Going to have to look out for severe with this, so stay weather aware for those days. Both days will be soupy, with perhaps some cooler/less humid air for the day Friday. Highs on both days will probably in the mid 80s. The front, according to the GFS, will stall just southwest of the area for next weekend. So, that would mean main storm action will be southwest of us. Going to have to wait a couple days to iron out the details. If that would be correct, then next weekend would be a little cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s and less humid, dry conditons. We shall see. Looking past that, the GFS has been consistent in the idea that a rather potent cold front will arrive in the June 3-4 timeframe with an associated deep low pressure system shooting through the Great Lakes. If that solution would be correct, then the chance for severe thunderstorms will be amplified during that time. Not saying it's 100% going to happen, but it needs to be monitored. Once that would shoot through, much cooler air will infiltrate with highs dropping back into the 70s. Of course, that's looking long term. Thanks for reading today's blog!