Weather Update: 3-31-2012

A cool, cloudy day so far today across Warrick County. The temperature as of 1:00 PM was only 62 with overcast skies and a limited visibility of 2 miles. These low stratus clouds are slowly breaking up and once they do we'll make it to a high near 70 later today. Tomorrow morning we will drop to 54 as skies partially clear out in the morning. We'll pick up a few clouds tomorrow as some rain showers develop to our north and east. It's not out of the question that we'll pick up a few showers, but the solid area of rain we'll stay northeast of here in the Cincinnati and Indianapolis area. A southwesterly breeze will develop tomorrow and warm temps up to 82. On Monday it will really turn warm, as skies brighten up. After a warm start in the low 60's, high temperatures will be well up into the 80's perhaps near record levels. I'm forecasting 86 for Monday which is 25 degrees above normal. You know that severe risk for Monday I had for Monday night on my last blog post, that system look like now that it will cut off into an upper low and stay over the southwest on Monday and Tuesday. On Tuesday a system will move through central IL and northern IN. This system will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. This could have a few scattered showers and storms with it. I think a severe storm is not out of the question, since CAPE values are well over 2000 J/KG Tuesday. High temps on Tuesday will be up near 84 degrees. The ECMWF is much slower with the front, it has it coming in here Wednesday & washing it out south of here. The high on Wednesday will be cooler, around 70 degrees with rain and clouds in the area. That upper low that I was talking about earlier will send waves of energy for late Wednesday and Thursday. Rain will likely move into Warrick County by Wednesday night. Rainfall could turn heavy for Wednesday night. The ECMWF is suggesting rainfall AMOUNTS will be over an inch. This rain will continue into the day Thursday with high temps could only be in the 50's as rain falls and the upper low is close to us creating evaporative cooling. Friday morning could be quite chilly if skies clear out. The ECMWF phases the upper low and a shortwave trough east of here which could lead to a chilly day on Friday. On the other hand, the GFS does not phase things up. This would lead to  a warmer Friday. I'm leaning toward the ECMWF, so I'm forecasting a high near 60 (if true phasing would occur, then the high would be down into the 50's) on Friday with lots of sun. Of course, if phasing could occur a frost could be possible Friday/and or Saturday morning. We'll make it into the mid 60's on Saturday with partly cloudy skies.

Weather Update: 3-28-2012

As I write this update, the temperature at Evansville was 63 with a calm wind. Tonight we'll fall to 51 with some high clouds. With the frontal passage earlier today, tomorrow's temperature will be cooler. The high temperature will be around 74, with us at least picking up a few clouds from the complex of showers and storms now over western Missouri. Friday we'll see a few scattered showers as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Then, a cold front will move through the area Friday evening with a few scattered showers or t'storms. The GFS model is pretty aggressive with the rainfall. The high temp on Friday will be near 80 degrees with some clouds at times. As the front moves through, the temps on Saturday morning will drop into the low 50's. We'll warm on Saturday to a high near 72 degrees with a light wind. Sunday will be very warm as gusty southwest winds pick up. The high will rise up to 82, with a mostly sunny sky. Monday looks nice MOST of the day, with a very warm high in the low to perhaps mid 80's. Then the potential for severe weather will occur Monday night and early Tuesday. A deepening surface low will move over Wisconsin Monday afternoon/evening. With this, a negative tilted trough will be over the plains and moving east Monday. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible with this setup late Monday. The specific details with this event are still uncertain, so stay tuned here for updates as we get closer. After this moves on through, temps will turn significantly cooler. It looks like Tuesday that we'll only make to around 63, with windy conditions. That temperature is actually a normal high for early April. The low Wednesday morning with be quite cool with temps dropping into the low 40's, which again is right around normal. The temperature will slightly edge up Wednesday, with a high temperature into the mid 60's.

Weather Update: 3-28-2012

As I write this update, the temperature at Evansville was 63 with a calm wind. Tonight we'll fall to 51 with some high clouds. With the frontal passage earlier today, tomorrow's temperature will be cooler. The high temperature will be around 74, with us at least picking up a few clouds from the complex of showers and storms now over western Missouri. Friday we'll see a few scattered showers as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Then, a cold front will move through the area Friday evening with a few scattered showers or t'storms. The GFS model is pretty aggressive with the rainfall. The high temp on Friday will be near 80 degrees with some clouds at times. As the front moves through, the temps on Saturday morning will drop into the low 50's. We'll warm on Saturday to a high near 70 degrees with a light wind. Sunday will be very warm as gusty southwest winds pick up. The high will rise up to 82, with a mostly sunny sky. Monday looks nice MOST of the day, with a very warm high in the low 80's. Then the potential for severe weather will occur Monday night and early Tuesday. A deepening surface will move over Wisconsin Monday afternoon/evening. With this, a negative tilted trough will be over the plains and moving east Monday. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible with this setup late Monday. The specific details with this event are still uncertain, so stay tuned here for updates as we get closer. After this moves on through, temps will turn significantly cooler. It looks like Tuesday that we'll only make to around 63, with windy conditions. That temperature is actually a normal high for early April. The low Wednesday morning with be quite cool with temps dropping into the low 40's, which again is right around normal. The temperature will slightly edge up Wednesday, with a high temperature into the mid 60's

Weather Update: 3-26-2012

Tomorrow morning will the coolest morning here in Warrick County in about two weeks, as lows dip to around 42 degrees. As a warm front moves through the region tomorrow, south winds will pick up and warm temps to near 74. On Wednesday morning a slow moving front will approach the area, perhaps producing a shower or two in the morning. A storm also can not be ruled out. That will clear out by late morning and we'll see a mix of clouds and sun with a high near 81, which is 20 degrees above normal. That front will cool temps down by about 10 degrees on Thursday.  The low temperature on Thursday will be around 48. Thursday afternoon there will be less humidity and less warmth, too. High temps will be near 70 with a clear sky. Clouds will increase Friday as a disturbance moves toward the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF models agree that most of Friday will be dry, with some showers arriving late in the day. The high temperature on Friday here in Warrick County will go up to 77. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday. The potential is there that it could rain on us much of the day. High temperatures on Saturday afternoon will be in the low 70's. Sunday will be a brighter, April Fools day with a cool start near 50, rising to highs in the mid 70's.

Almanac for Today
High Temperature: 73  Low Temperature: 52
Precipitation: 0.00
Normals: High-61 Low-38
Record High: 80 (2007, 1991,1921) Record Low: 10 (1955)

Monthly Stats
Precip: 2.19"
Normal to date: 3.51" (-1.32")
Average Temperature: 58.3
H:70 - L:47

Last Year
High: 43 Low: 32
Precip: 0.20" (Trace of Snow)

Significant Severe/Tornado Outbreak Possible Tomorrow: 3-2-2012

The potential is there for a major outbreak of severe storms and or tornadoes across the Mid-South to Ohio Valley Friday. It looks like the really bad stuff will be from about Nashville to Cincinnati. The Storm Prediction Center may need to issue a HIGH risk by tomorrow morning in central Kentucky where a few strong, long track tornadoes will be a possibility. Currently there is a moderate risk running from western Alabama to Central Ohio. As far as the tri-state is concerned, the entire area is under a MODERATE risk for severe storms.

TIMING: Scattered storms will develop around daybreak Friday morning. The main threat with these storms is hail. That being said, an isolated tornado may be a possibility due to the wind direction shift along the warm front. The big show is not until afternoon. I expect a few super cells to develop around noon, and gradually move east. Temperatures tomorrow will soar into the low 70's, with lots of wind. Then, the potential is there for another line of severe storms (associated w/ the cold front) to arrive in the early afternoon in Evansville. All modes of severe weather will be a possibility: Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all game. I think the biggest TORNADO threat in the tri-state will be in the eastern half of the area. All of the severe ingredients are there: dewpoints in the low 60's, CAPE values over 1500 J/KG, EHI (Energy Helicity Index) values between a 2 and 3, Helicity values (veering of the wind with altitude) over 200 units, and most importantly a trigger.

Have a weather radio handy for tomorrow afternoon and make sure to keep the thing turned ON. DO NOT rely on an outdoor siren, for they are designed for folks who are outside. We are all hoping this is a bust, but as of right now, this doesn't look like it will be the case.