Weather Update: 4-1-2012

If you were outside earlier today, you knew that it was pretty warm and also a bit humid. The high today at my house was 87, while at Evansville Regional Airport the high temperature made it to 86 which broke the record high of 85 set back in 1940. Tomorrow morning we'll only drop to 61 degrees which is 1 degree off our normal high temperature! Tomorrow afternoon there will be a bit of a temperature divide. High temperatures southwest of Warrick County (let's say down around Morganfield, KY) should be in the middle 80's, while areas like Jasper, IN could be in the middle 70's. Why? Well there will be a warm/stationary front setting up in between. I think here in Warrick County it will be more like 82. Tuesday there will be a chance of scattered showers and storms. I think some of these storms could be strong, so keep an eye out because I'll have an update tomorrow afternoon. The high temperature on Tuesday will be around 82 degrees. Wednesday morning there could be a few scattered showers around with the boundary still in the area. The more heavier rain will arrive Wednesday night/early Thursday morning with the upper low I was talking about yesterday. A gradual increase in clouds Wednesday will warrant the chance of precipitation later on in the day. There could be a strong storm, but the CAPE values will be south of here. High temps will be cooler, but still above average with a high temperature around 71. It's worth noting that the ECMWF does not have the rain into Warrick County by daybreak Thursday. Thursday looks wet and cloudy. Rain will be around all day. The Euro model is suggesting rain could become moderate to heavy during the mid-day hours. Again, a storm can't be ruled out - updates later on. I'll go with 62 for a high on Thursday. As for Thursday night, the GFS is suggesting a complex of showers and thunderstorms will develop in SE MO and move into our area before midnight. On the other hand, the ECMWF has the upper low south of here in West TN which would suggest that the storms would fire down there. Either way, rainfall could be significant. The models will be more likely to agree later on in the week. The phasing that I was talking about for Friday looks like it won't happen. If this would have happened, then a frost could have been possible for Friday and/or Saturday morning. Now, it looks like temps will only drop into the upper 40's for Friday morning. Skies for Friday look to turn partly cloudy with highs near 68 degrees. Saturday looks dry with a blend of sun and clouds with a gradual increase late in the day ahead of the next system. Highs will make it to near 73 with a light northeast wind. Easter Sunday looks wet. A cold front will progress through the area Sunday AM. With this, a band showers and perhaps thunderstorms will be possible. We'll have to fine tune that forecast as new data comes on in! High temps on Easter will make it to near 71 degrees.