IN REVIEW: Quite the difference in weather across the area yesterday. A snow storm did effect northern parts of our region Saturday into Sunday, just in case you didn't notice. It was a very sharp cutoff with totals; as much as 9" fell in Palestine, IL in Crawford County while most of the Lower Ohio Valley received NOTHING. The cutoff line was approximately located from near Mcleansboro, IL northeast to Vincennes, IN. Anything south of there received nothing -- just a few light rain/freezing rain showers. Stubborn dry air held over much of the area in the nighttime hours of Saturday limiting precipitation; including my location in Warrick County. Our counties were on the southern edge of a larger snow storm; St. Louis and Indianapolis received a decent amount of snow out of this as well.
WHAT'S AHEAD: The next few days will be a wild ride weather wise. Tomorrow, though cold, won't be that crazy compared to what is forecast for the two days following. Highs temperatures will range from near 32F in northern areas where the snow pack resides to lower 40s across the southern tip of Illinois into Western Kentucky. Still won't see much sun. Frown.
--TUESDAY--
Precipitation will break out early Tuesday morning mainly in the form of rain; though a brief period of freezing rain is possible with this right as the precipitation starts especially across our northern tier. By the middle of the day Tuesday, all areas across our region will make the transition to rain as southwesterly winds will pick up. The rain could become heavy at times, especially across southeastern parts. Totals could end up over 2" southeast of a line from Paducah to Owensboro. I think widespread totals of an 1" or so is likely. There is some elevated instability with this, so a few thunderstorms are possible. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be a welcome site for most folks. Mid 40s across the far north to near 60F in the Bowling Green, KY area. However, the mild temperatures won't last for long. The front, instigated the precipitation, will begin to stall southeast of the area as we head into Wednesday. This is where the potential fun will begin with wintry precipitation.
--WEDNESDAY--
Where the front stalls and the resulting thermal profiles will make difference as to where the wintry precip will setup and what type of precipitation you will receive. All of the numerical models show a secondary wave of low pressure riding the front Wednesday, so confidence is fairly high that a winter weather event will occur SOMEWHERE in the region. The data tonight continues that trend. The GFS is the only model that shows a suppressed solution that would limit any wintry mischief to our far southern counties. The rest of the guidance shows a more widespread wintry scenario. A lot goes with this forecast:
1.) The Arctic High: The delivery mechanism of the cold air, the strength and position of which will affect precipitation potential. *The GFS is a bit stronger, further east. Suppression would occur for most of the area.*
2.) Stalling Frontal Boundary: Where exactly does it stall out? All data shows southeast of us. Location is critical to the track of the wave and our temperatures. *GFS a little further southeast than other guidance.
Then the story after the potential wintry weather will be the cold. Highs Thursday will stay in the 20s, perhaps lower 20s for areas with a decent snow cover. Overnight lows would then drop accordingly into the single digits for those areas. Ouch.
Warmer weather (above freezing) would probably return by Friday. It is March after all.
ADDITIONAL NOTES:
Most of the remaining snow pack from the Feb. 16-17 storm has melted. This ends a streak of about two weeks (Feb. 17-Mar. 1) where at least 1" of snow has been on the ground. While not unprecedented, a snow depth of 1" for that long is something that doesn't happen quite that often at this low of a latitude.
The snow that fell with the Feb. 21-22 storm has remained in our northern counties, and with the new snow of 5-8" that fell yesterday, folks have a decent snowpack up there in excess of 9". A lot of melting will occur Tuesday, however, as temperatures will rise at least in the lower 40s and rain falls. Wouldn't be surprised for a bit of flooding in remaining snow-ridden areas as rapid snow melt and falling rain will create lots of water.
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Note: No images in today's blog (makes it kind of boring). Future posts will have images of maps, guidance, weather pictures, etc. Just couldn't get them tonight.
Thanks for reading!
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