Weather Update: 3-31-2012

A cool, cloudy day so far today across Warrick County. The temperature as of 1:00 PM was only 62 with overcast skies and a limited visibility of 2 miles. These low stratus clouds are slowly breaking up and once they do we'll make it to a high near 70 later today. Tomorrow morning we will drop to 54 as skies partially clear out in the morning. We'll pick up a few clouds tomorrow as some rain showers develop to our north and east. It's not out of the question that we'll pick up a few showers, but the solid area of rain we'll stay northeast of here in the Cincinnati and Indianapolis area. A southwesterly breeze will develop tomorrow and warm temps up to 82. On Monday it will really turn warm, as skies brighten up. After a warm start in the low 60's, high temperatures will be well up into the 80's perhaps near record levels. I'm forecasting 86 for Monday which is 25 degrees above normal. You know that severe risk for Monday I had for Monday night on my last blog post, that system look like now that it will cut off into an upper low and stay over the southwest on Monday and Tuesday. On Tuesday a system will move through central IL and northern IN. This system will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. This could have a few scattered showers and storms with it. I think a severe storm is not out of the question, since CAPE values are well over 2000 J/KG Tuesday. High temps on Tuesday will be up near 84 degrees. The ECMWF is much slower with the front, it has it coming in here Wednesday & washing it out south of here. The high on Wednesday will be cooler, around 70 degrees with rain and clouds in the area. That upper low that I was talking about earlier will send waves of energy for late Wednesday and Thursday. Rain will likely move into Warrick County by Wednesday night. Rainfall could turn heavy for Wednesday night. The ECMWF is suggesting rainfall AMOUNTS will be over an inch. This rain will continue into the day Thursday with high temps could only be in the 50's as rain falls and the upper low is close to us creating evaporative cooling. Friday morning could be quite chilly if skies clear out. The ECMWF phases the upper low and a shortwave trough east of here which could lead to a chilly day on Friday. On the other hand, the GFS does not phase things up. This would lead to  a warmer Friday. I'm leaning toward the ECMWF, so I'm forecasting a high near 60 (if true phasing would occur, then the high would be down into the 50's) on Friday with lots of sun. Of course, if phasing could occur a frost could be possible Friday/and or Saturday morning. We'll make it into the mid 60's on Saturday with partly cloudy skies.