The potential is there for a major outbreak of severe storms and or tornadoes across the Mid-South to Ohio Valley Friday. It looks like the really bad stuff will be from about Nashville to Cincinnati. The Storm Prediction Center may need to issue a HIGH risk by tomorrow morning in central Kentucky where a few strong, long track tornadoes will be a possibility. Currently there is a moderate risk running from western Alabama to Central Ohio. As far as the tri-state is concerned, the entire area is under a MODERATE risk for severe storms.
TIMING: Scattered storms will develop around daybreak Friday morning. The main threat with these storms is hail. That being said, an isolated tornado may be a possibility due to the wind direction shift along the warm front. The big show is not until afternoon. I expect a few super cells to develop around noon, and gradually move east. Temperatures tomorrow will soar into the low 70's, with lots of wind. Then, the potential is there for another line of severe storms (associated w/ the cold front) to arrive in the early afternoon in Evansville. All modes of severe weather will be a possibility: Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all game. I think the biggest TORNADO threat in the tri-state will be in the eastern half of the area. All of the severe ingredients are there: dewpoints in the low 60's, CAPE values over 1500 J/KG, EHI (Energy Helicity Index) values between a 2 and 3, Helicity values (veering of the wind with altitude) over 200 units, and most importantly a trigger.
Have a weather radio handy for tomorrow afternoon and make sure to keep the thing turned ON. DO NOT rely on an outdoor siren, for they are designed for folks who are outside. We are all hoping this is a bust, but as of right now, this doesn't look like it will be the case.
No comments:
Post a Comment