Evansville Weather Update: May 30, 2014

We are sitting now at 86° as of 2 PM on this Saturday afternoon. The boundary has pushed far enough southwest that the metro will remain storm free today, but areas southwest of a line from Norris City, IL to Mount Vernon, IN to Madisonville, KY need to remain on the lookout for thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon. The cumulus field is along the boundary as well, so most areas northeast of the boundary are mostly sunny this afternoon. The outlook for the remainder of the forecast period looks stormy. Starting tomorrow, the threat for scattered showers/storms will return for the entire area as a southerly flow develops. The upper high that I talked about in the last post will be a bit more to the east and more weaker than I was expecting, so the chance for storms will be higher than what I was expecting for Sunday as well. Highs will probably in the mid 80s, with a mix of sun and clouds outside of thunderstorms. You guessed it for Monday. The chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain across the area during the PM hours. Due to the widespread nature of the storms on Monday, the skies will be mostly cloudy for the day. This will limit the high temperature potential. I think highs for Monday will be only near 80°, but it will remain humid. Again, these storms have the potential for small hail an some torrential rainfall rates, but the severe threat will be low through Monday. On Tuesday, there are some model differences. The NAM really doesn't have a lot of activity during the day, so storm potential would be low. The GFS, on the other hand, has the chance for storms during the day. Going to cite with the GFS, and put thunderstorms in the forecast for Tuesday. Mainly during the PM hours, these storms could be severe especially to the north. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s. Going into midweek next week, our chance for severe weather will be on the increase. The SPC has already issued a severe risk for Tuesday and Wednesday north of I-70. The potential for an MCS developing is there during Tuesday night and Wednesday. These things are hard to forecast, and it could bust a forecast, so be aware of that. As far as the severe risk here in the Evansville area, I think that will be Wednesday night going into Thursday. During the day on Wednesday, the main forcing with be north of the area, along with the jet dynamics. These features will be the focal point for severe storms during the day Wedneday, north of the area. Going into Wednesday night, these features will be slowly sagging to the south. Be aware of the risk for severe weather Wednesday night going into Thursday. I think every form of severe weather will be on the table, including tornadoes. During the day Thursday, the boundary will remain in the area, but the upper support/shear will be lacking. Still the chance for showers/storms will remain during the day Thursday. Haven't spoke much on temperatues, but Tuesday through Thursday highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to near 70. A shortwave, according to the GFS, will be rotating through the flow and be located in Missouri 18z Friday. South of a warm front, severe weather will again be possible. For now, that's all I'm going to say. Stay weather aware this week, as multiple rounds of storms are possible.