LOCAL WEATHER: Well, the heat and humidity has come as promised. The temperature at EVV at 4 PM was 87F, a muggy dewpoint of 66F, and a wind out of the south at 16 MPH. We have had some shower activity over Southern IL, but it has diminished for now. We have reached our high for the day, and we'll slowly fall through the 80s this evening to a overnight low much warmer than previous mornings, near 71F. The SPC has actually outlined areas northwest of Evansville in Southern IL under a slight risk for severe weather through this evening. The latest HRRR model does fire some more convection today, initating it pretty much along the Mississippi River this evening. We'll see if this plays out. If it does, then there could be a severe t'storm watch issued this evening and some reports of severe weather across Southern IL. I don't it'll make it into Southwest IN or Northwest KY at severe criteria, but we could deal with the remant showers/generic thunderstorms. Tomorrow, with the weak boundary in the area, a few more showers/storms could fire. Sticking with that 40% chance. The sky will be partly cloudy tomorrow, with an afternoon high near 90F. Our first official 90 degree day for the year. Monday night looks dry, low near 71F. The day Tuesday looks dry and hot. The high temperature will be even warmer than Monday, with an afternoon high near 92F. The sky will be mostly sunny, with the muggy dewpoints sticking around - upper 60s. Really nice. Wednesday looks about the same. After a warm start near 70F, the afternoon high will be near 92F. The GFS does fire a few storms during the day, but with the upper high firmly in place across the region I won't put it in the forecast for now. The hot, humid, sunny weather will continue on Wednesday.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC: There is no tropical cyclone formation expected over the next 48 hours.
THE EAST PAC: The last advisory has been issued on Cristina. It is now a 35 MPH post-tropical cyclone, with a low central pressure of 1005 MB. It will be pretty much off the radar screen by Monday. Besides Cristina, the NHC has outlined an invest area a few hundred miles south of Guatemala. The NHC has a 10% chance of this thing developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, with a medium 30% chance of development in the next 5 days. The area of disorganized t'storms now is expected to get more organized in upcoming days as the environment is favorable west of the system. We'll keep an eye on it.
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