Friday, June 13, 2014

Updated Outlook: June 13, 2014

LOCAL WEATHER: A severe clear day across the area today along with dewpoints near 50F remind me of an October day rather than a June one. The temperature at EVV at 2 PM was 76F, dewpoint 50F, and a nice northerly wind at 8 MPH. We won't see many days like this over the coming summer months, so take advantage. The open wave did produce some showers as forecast early this morning, but amounts were very light. Picked up 0.01" here in Warrick County, and amounts <0.05" were common across the area. The forecast for tomorrow morning remains refreshing, forecasting a low of 52F here as we go clear sky and calm wind as the 1020MB surface high glides southeast across the Great Lakes. Wonderful. Tomorrow will be about the same across the Lower Ohio Valley, just a tad warmer. High will be near 81F, but we'll still have those dry dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s. Sunny skies will prevail as well. All good things must come to end, unfortunately. Tomorrow night those winds will begin to shift to the east, and eventually a southerly flow will develop by Sunday. The morning will be still cool, near 58F, but the heat and humidity levels will rise going into the afternoon. High near 88F, with the hot sun shining perhaps some late afternoon clouds. Going into Sunday night, a surface cold front will be located northwest of the area. As clouds increase ahead of the front and the tropical air mass fully in place, lows for Monday morning will be quite warmer than the previous few mornings, near 69F. The front, according to the latest 12z model runs, will be stalling out near I-70 during the day Monday. The greatest chance of rain here in the area will be north of US-50, but going to go with a 20% chance of a storm areawide Monday. There will be a mix of sun and clouds Monday, with even warmer conditions. The high will be near 90F, making it the first 90 degree day officially at EVV for the year. It will be muggy as well, with surface dewpoint values approaching 70F. The upper high anchored over the Southeast US looks to dominant our weather through midweek.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC: No tropical cyclones expected over the next 48 hours.

THE EAST PAC: Hurricane Cristina has weakened from the CAT 4 she was yesterday, with the latest 10 AM advisory it has weakened to a 100 MPH CAT 2. This thing will continue to weaken, as sea surface temperatures rapidly drop off in its coming environment. Also, a sharp upper trough from the west will shear the storm making the environment too hostile for continued tropical cyclone existence. It's forecast to become a Tropical Depression by early Monday.

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